WMO warns of rapid El Nino development during July-September
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of rapid El Niño development during the July–September 2026 window, placing an 82% probability on El Niño conditions emerging during this period.
India is already experiencing a significant monsoon deficit: June 2026 recorded approximately 40–43% below-normal rainfall — the first below-normal monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in 11 years.
The rainfall deficit has directly impacted kharif crop sowing: overall crop acreage has declined by approximately 23% compared to the same period in the previous year, with oilseeds (particularly soybean) registering the sharpest lag.
The IMD has forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall for 2026 at around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), signalling continued stress through the remaining monsoon months (July–September).
The Agriculture Ministry has activated district-specific contingency plans under ICAR guidelines, while retaining the kharif foodgrain production target at approximately 176 million tonnes.
El Niño and the ENSO Mechanism
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — a periodic climate pattern driven by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific Ocean. ENSO is a natural oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon that operates on a 2–7 year cycle.
Key Details
- Under normal (neutral ENSO) conditions, trade winds blow westward across the Pacific, pushing warm surface water toward the western Pacific and allowing cold, nutrient-rich water to upwell along South America's coast.
- During El Niño, trade winds weaken or reverse; warm water spreads eastward across the equatorial Pacific. An El Niño event is classified when SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (central-eastern Pacific) exceed +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons.
- During La Niña (the opposite, cool phase), trade winds strengthen, western Pacific warms further, and the Indian monsoon typically receives above-normal rainfall.
- El Niño has accompanied drought conditions in India in approximately 60% of El Niño years over the past 130 years — the relationship is probabilistic, not deterministic.
- ENSO teleconnections affect global weather: droughts in South Asia/Australia, excess rainfall in South America, and disrupted Atlantic hurricane seasons.
A rapidly developing El Niño during July–September — the peak monsoon months for India — carries direct risk of further suppressing the southwest monsoon, compounding the existing June deficit.
The Indian Southwest Monsoon — Mechanism and ENSO Sensitivity
The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), or Southwest Monsoon, is driven primarily by the differential heating of the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, creating a pressure gradient that draws moisture-laden winds from the ocean over the land between June and September.
Key Details
- The monsoon delivers about 70–80% of India's annual rainfall during June–September, making it critical to agriculture, groundwater recharge, river flow, and reservoir storage.
- The Long Period Average (LPA) — the 50-year average of seasonal monsoon rainfall — is the benchmark against which each year's performance is measured. "Normal" is defined as 96–104% of LPA.
- El Niño's influence on the monsoon works through a weakening of the Walker Circulation and changes in the Hadley Circulation, reducing moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — sea surface temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean — can modulate El Niño's impact: a positive IOD partially offsets the deficit risk from El Niño.
- IMD issues seasonal forecasts in April and May each year using ensemble models; the 2026 forecast of ~92% LPA is the first below-normal forecast in 11 years.
With El Niño developing rapidly through the core monsoon months, the IMD's already pessimistic forecast faces downside risk — prolonging the current kharif sowing crisis into August and September.
Kharif Agriculture and Monsoon Dependence in India
Kharif crops are the summer-sown crops of India, planted at the onset of the southwest monsoon (June–July) and harvested by October–November. They are the backbone of India's agricultural calendar.
Key Details
- Major kharif crops: rice, maize, cotton, soybean, sugarcane, and pulses (tur/arhar, urad, moong) and millets (jowar, bajra).
- Approximately 60% of India's farmland is rain-fed (not irrigated), making these areas entirely dependent on monsoon rainfall for kharif cultivation.
- A poor kharif harvest triggers a chain: food price inflation → reduced rural incomes → lower rural demand → wider economic slowdown. Cereals, pulses, and oilseeds all feed into the CPI (Consumer Price Index) basket.
- In 2026, kharif crop acreage stood at ~11.99 million hectares as of late June — nominally slightly above the previous year (11.79 mha) in headline terms, but concentrated in irrigated areas; rain-fed acreage and oilseed sowing (especially soybean in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra) have lagged significantly.
- The government's kharif foodgrain target for 2026: ~176 million tonnes, consistent with 2025 output — but achievability depends on the monsoon's recovery in July–August.
A 40%+ June deficit directly delays kharif sowing in rain-fed districts; the WMO's El Niño warning implies this deficit may persist or worsen, threatening the government's production targets and food inflation management.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) — Role and Mandate
The WMO is a specialized agency of the United Nations, established in 1950. It is the authoritative intergovernmental body for atmospheric science, climate, hydrology, and related environmental sciences.
Key Details
- WMO has 193 Member States and Territories. India is a founding member.
- It coordinates the work of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS); India's IMD operates under this framework.
- WMO publishes regular El Niño/La Niña Updates — consensus assessments from Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction (including ECMWF, NCEP, BoM, IMD) — which serve as the authoritative global benchmark for ENSO forecasting.
- WMO's early warning systems and climate services directly inform disaster risk reduction under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030).
- WMO warnings are particularly consequential for food security planning: the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) use WMO's ENSO outlooks to pre-position relief supplies.
WMO's formal warning of rapid El Niño development carries institutional weight — it serves as the trigger for governments, including India's, to activate contingency agricultural plans and disaster preparedness protocols.
Food Inflation and El Niño's Economic Consequences for India
El Niño-linked monsoon deficits in India have historically produced measurable food price inflation, which in turn affects the RBI's monetary policy and broader macroeconomic management.
Key Details
- Food and beverages account for approximately 45.86% of India's CPI basket (base year 2012), making food prices disproportionately influential on headline inflation.
- A weak kharif harvest elevates prices of vegetables, pulses, and cereals — categories that have repeatedly breached RBI's tolerance band (CPI target: 4% ±2%).
- The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) formally considers monsoon-linked food price risks in its inflation projections; persistent food inflation can delay rate cuts even when core inflation is controlled.
- El Niño years with severe monsoon deficits — notably 2002 (29% deficit, GDP growth fell sharply) and 2009 (22% deficit) — are reference points for economic policymakers in assessing downside risks.
- Government response tools include: releasing buffer stocks (food corporation stocks), imposing export bans on rice/wheat/onions, and waiving irrigation water fees in affected districts.
The combination of a June deficit already above 40% and a WMO-confirmed El Niño trajectory creates a high-risk scenario for kharif output, food prices, and rural incomes — with cascading consequences for monetary policy and fiscal management.
- WMO El Niño probability (July–September 2026): 82%
- India June 2026 monsoon deficit: ~40–43% below Long Period Average (LPA)
- IMD's 2026 seasonal forecast: ~92% of LPA (first below-normal forecast in 11 years)
- Kharif crop acreage (late June 2026): ~11.99 million hectares (vs. 11.79 mha in 2025)
- Kharif acreage decline: ~23% in rain-fed/vulnerable areas; soybean sowing most affected
- Government kharif foodgrain target 2026: ~176 million tonnes
- Rain-fed farmland in India: ~60% of total cultivated area
- ENSO cycle frequency: every 2–7 years
- El Niño drought correlation with India: ~60% of El Niño events over past 130 years
- Food and beverages weight in India CPI basket: ~45.86%
- WMO established: 1950; UN specialised agency; 193 members
- Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: 2015–2030 (links early warning to DRR planning)
- Notable El Niño drought years in India: 2002 (29% deficit), 2009 (22% deficit)