El Nino effect: Challenges to adaptation and resilience

A developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific has suppressed the 2026 southwest monsoon, with India recording a 40–45% rainfall deficit in June 2026 — o...

What Happened

A developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific has suppressed the 2026 southwest monsoon, with India recording a 40–45% rainfall deficit in June 2026 — one of the driest June periods in over a century of observations.
Around 200 districts have been flagged by the agriculture ministry for El Niño-linked vulnerability, with contingency plans activated to tailor responses by local rainfall and irrigation conditions.
The IMD projected the 2026 southwest monsoon at 92% of the Long Period Average, with a 35% probability of a deficient season — more than double the historical baseline of 16%.
Kharif sowing has declined by roughly 23% year-on-year as of late June, with oilseeds and pulses — nearly 90% of whose area is rainfed — bearing the heaviest burden.
Government response includes boosting water conservation infrastructure, promoting low-water-demand crops, reinforcing seed and fertiliser advisory systems, and activating financial support schemes including crop insurance.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)

El Niño refers to the anomalous warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, typically occurring at irregular intervals of 2–7 years. The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component — measured by the pressure seesaw between Darwin (Australia) and Tahiti (French Polynesia). Together, they form ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), the most powerful interannual climate driver on Earth.

During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water accumulates in the eastern Pacific, suppressing convection over the western Pacific and the Indian subcontinent.
The Walker Circulation — the large-scale east-west atmospheric overturning cell in the tropics — weakens during El Niño, reducing moisture transport to South Asia and Africa.
La Niña (the opposite phase — anomalous cooling of the eastern Pacific) is generally associated with enhanced monsoon rainfall in India.
El Niño events are monitored using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), with warming of ≥0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region for five consecutive months qualifying as an El Niño episode.
Historically, roughly 60% of below-normal monsoon years in India coincide with El Niño conditions.

Connection to this news: The developing El Niño in 2026 has weakened the Walker Circulation and reduced moisture influx from the Indian Ocean, directly suppressing the southwest monsoon that India's kharif agriculture depends on.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual climate variability pattern in the Indian Ocean, involving an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the western Indian Ocean (near the Horn of Africa) and the eastern Indian Ocean (near Indonesia).

A Positive IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean, cooler eastern Indian Ocean) is associated with above-normal monsoon rainfall in India and can partially buffer El Niño's suppressive effect.
A Negative IOD (cooler west, warmer east) compounds the monsoon deficit effect of El Niño.
The IOD operates independently of ENSO but is influenced by it through the "atmospheric bridge" of the Walker Circulation.
The IOD index is measured as the SST anomaly difference between the western pole (50°E–70°E, 10°S–10°N) and the eastern pole (90°E–110°E, 10°S–0°N).
The IOD concept was identified in the late 1990s by Japanese and Indian oceanographers.

Connection to this news: India's 2026 monsoon deficit reflects an unfavourable ENSO phase; tracking the concurrent IOD state is critical to understanding whether any offsetting warming in the western Indian Ocean can moderate the monsoon shortfall.

India's Southwest Monsoon System

The southwest monsoon (June–September) is the primary rainfall mechanism for the Indian subcontinent, delivering roughly 75–80% of India's annual precipitation. It originates from the differential heating of the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean and arrives along two branches — the Arabian Sea branch (western coast, Gujarat) and the Bay of Bengal branch (northeast India, Gangetic plains).

Long Period Average (LPA) for the southwest monsoon (1971–2020 baseline): approximately 87 cm over the country as a whole.
A monsoon is classified as "deficient" if seasonal rainfall is 10% or more below the LPA.
The IMD issues four-stage forecasts — April long-range forecast, May updated forecast, and monthly outlooks.
The monsoon normally reaches Kerala by June 1 (±7 days) and covers the country by July 15.
Agriculture, hydropower generation, reservoir storage, and groundwater recharge are all critically tied to monsoon performance.

Connection to this news: The 2026 June deficit of 40–45% falls well within the "deficient" classification, triggering automatic state-level drought monitoring protocols and contingency agriculture plans.

Drought Classification and Management Framework in India

India does not have a constitutionally defined drought declaration mechanism. Drought declaration is a state subject, though the Union Government sets the assessment methodology. The 2016 Manual for Drought Management (Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare) provides the standardised framework.

Drought is classified in India under two categories: meteorological drought (rainfall deficiency) and agricultural drought (soil moisture deficiency affecting crops).
The Disaster Management Act, 2005 establishes the three-tier institutional framework: NDMA (national) → SDMA (state) → DDMA (district).
Under the Act (Section 14), all state governments must establish a State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA), chaired by the Chief Minister.
The National Drought Monitor, maintained by IIT Gandhinagar, is India's primary real-time drought tracking tool, using indices like the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).
States must declare drought before accessing the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) for agricultural relief.
The 2016 Manual introduced new hydrological indicators and time-bound protocols for state drought declaration.

Connection to this news: As 41.2% of India's area came under drought or near-drought conditions by July 1, 2026, states with >75% of their area affected can formally invoke the drought declaration mechanism to unlock central agricultural relief funds.

Key Facts & Data

June 2026 monsoon rainfall deficit: approximately 40–45%, one of the driest June periods in over 100 years of recorded data.
Kharif sowing area as of June 25, 2026: 18.27 million hectares — down 23% from 23.65 million hectares in the same period in 2025.
Oilseeds sowing: declined from 3.64 mha to 1.70 mha — a 53% drop year-on-year.
Rice sowing: 2.58 mha in 2026 vs 3.44 mha in 2025 (a ~25% decline).
Area under drought as of July 1: 41.2% of India's total area (per National Drought Monitor, IIT Gandhinagar).
Western India: 71% of area under drought; Central India: 53%; Northeast: 62%; North: 46%.
111 districts flagged as high-priority drought risk, across 12 states.
Agriculture contributes approximately 15% of India's GDP and employs about 45% of the workforce.
Approximately 60% of India's kharif crop area is rainfed and directly dependent on monsoon rainfall.
During El Niño years, India's rice production has historically declined by an average of 3.4 million tonnes (~7%).
IMD's 2026 forecast: 92% of LPA, with 35% probability of a deficient monsoon — more than double the historical baseline deficiency probability of 16%.