El Niño 2026 and India's Monsoon Deficit: Food Security and Agricultural Risks
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the 2026 southwest monsoon at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), signalling a "below-normal" season — a downward revision from an earlier 92% forecast.
El Niño conditions have developed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with all four Niño-region indices remaining above 0°C since late April 2026 and the Niño 3.4 anomaly at +0.4°C.
The southwest monsoon arrived over Kerala on June 4, 2026 — three days later than the normal onset date of June 1.
IMD assigns a 60% probability of a deficient season; central India, northwest India, and south peninsular India are projected to receive below-normal rainfall.
Experts note India is better prepared today through buffer food stocks, MSP-based procurement, and expanded irrigation infrastructure, but approximately 60% of farmers still depend on monsoon rainfall for the kharif season.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO is an irregular oscillation of ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific Ocean. During the El Niño (warm) phase, trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific. This disrupts the Walker Circulation — the east-west atmospheric convection cell driven by pressure differences across the equatorial Pacific — suppressing convective rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
The developing El Niño — with Niño 3.4 anomaly already positive — is the primary driver behind IMD's downward revision of the 2026 monsoon forecast to 90% of LPA.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Partial Countervailing Force
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon defined by the gradient in sea surface temperatures (SST) between the western Indian Ocean (near the Arabian Sea) and the eastern Indian Ocean (near the Indonesian coast). A positive IOD means the western Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than the east. This drives stronger onshore moisture flow and enhanced monsoon rainfall over India, particularly central and western regions.
A moderate-to-strong positive IOD, if it develops in time, could partially offset El Niño's suppressive effect on the 2026 monsoon — the crucial unknown for the season's final outcome.
Monsoon and Food Security Framework
India's southwest monsoon (June–September) delivers approximately 70–80% of the country's annual rainfall and irrigates about 52% of net sown area. The kharif crop cycle — covering rice, cotton, sugarcane, pulses, coarse cereals — is directly dependent on monsoon timing and distribution. Below-normal monsoon years historically trigger: (i) reduced kharif output; (ii) inflationary pressure on food prices; (iii) reduced groundwater recharge affecting rabi crops.
Key Details
- India's LPA for southwest monsoon rainfall: 868.6 mm (computed over 1971–2020 by IMD; previously 880 mm over 1951–2000).
- "Normal" monsoon: 96–104% of LPA; "Below normal": 90–95% LPA; "Deficient": below 90% LPA.
- Buffer stock norms (Food Corporation of India): wheat + rice stock held quarterly; released via NFSA (National Food Security Act, 2013) PDS and OMSS (Open Market Sale Scheme) to stabilise prices.
- National Food Security Act, 2013 covers approximately 81.35 crore beneficiaries (67% of population) under targeted PDS.
- Prime Minister Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY, 2016) provides crop insurance; premium capped at 2% for kharif crops, 1.5% for rabi, 5% for commercial/horticultural crops.
A 10% shortfall from LPA places the monsoon at the lower end of the "below-normal" band, sufficient to stress kharif sowing and require activation of government price stabilisation and buffer-stock mechanisms.
- 2026 IMD monsoon forecast: 90% of LPA (revised down from 92%)
- India's LPA for southwest monsoon: 868.6 mm (base period 1971–2020)
- Southwest monsoon onset over Kerala: June 4, 2026 (normal: June 1)
- ENSO threshold: Niño 3.4 SST anomaly ≥ +0.5°C for 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods
- Share of Indian agriculture dependent on monsoon: ~52% of net sown area is rainfed
- Kharif crops at risk: rice, pulses, cotton, coarse cereals, sugarcane
- PMFBY kharif crop premium cap: 2% of sum insured (farmer share)
- Positive IOD historically offset El Niño effects in 1983, 1994, and 1997