El Niño and India's Dairy Economy: Why Milk Supply Is Becoming a Seasonal Risk
A recent analysis warned that El Niño (an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean that often weakens India's monsoon) is turning milk supply in India into a seasonal risk.
El Niño years usually bring weaker rain and hotter summers to India. This hurts dairy in two ways. First, heat stress makes cows and buffaloes eat less and give less milk. Second, poor rain means less green fodder and less crop straw, so feeding animals becomes costlier.
Milk in India already follows a yearly cycle. Output rises in the cooler "flush" season (roughly winter) and falls in the hot "lean" season (roughly summer). A weak monsoon and extra heat can make the lean season deeper and longer.
In 2026, major dairies raised milk prices by about 2 to 3% in May, and trade reports warned of further rises if fodder shortages got worse. Some cooperative leaders said the effect is regional, not national, because poor rain hits some areas more than others.
The analysis argued that the dairy industry should build systems to handle weather shocks, such as fodder banks, cooling for animals, stocks of milk powder and insurance, so that consumers do not face shortages.
Operation Flood and India's White Revolution
Operation Flood was a national dairy development programme launched in 1970 by the National Dairy Development Board (NDDB). It organised millions of small milk farmers into village cooperatives and connected them to buyers in cities across India. It turned India from a country that had to import milk powder into the world's largest milk producer. This huge rise in milk production is known as India's White Revolution.
Operation Flood built a huge milk system based on millions of small farmers and their animals. Because this system depends on rain-fed fodder and animals that are sensitive to heat, an El Niño year can quickly cut supply and raise prices. The cooperative network, milk-powder stocks and fodder support built since Operation Flood are the main tools India has to absorb such shocks.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate swing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Every few years, the sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific becomes unusually warm (El Niño) or unusually cool (La Niña), and the winds and air pressure above the ocean change along with it. These changes shift rainfall patterns across the world. For India, El Niño usually means a weaker monsoon and hotter weather, while La Niña usually means a stronger monsoon.
The analysis links El Niño to India's milk supply because the monsoon feeds the fodder that feeds the animals. A strong El Niño can weaken rain and raise temperatures, cutting milk yields and pushing up dairy costs, which is why the industry is being urged to plan for weather shocks.
- India's milk production 2024-25: 247.87 million tonnes (up 3.58% from 239.30 million tonnes in 2023-24)
- Per capita milk availability 2024-25: 485 grams per day (world average about 328 grams)
- India's share of world milk output: about 25%; world's largest producer since 1998
- Top states 2024-25: Uttar Pradesh (15.66%), Rajasthan (14.82%), Madhya Pradesh (9.12%), Gujarat (7.78%), Maharashtra (6.71%)
- Major dairies raised milk prices by about 2 to 3% in May 2026
- Flush season output can be about 25 to 30% higher than lean season output
- El Niño threshold: Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature at least 0.5°C above normal
- White Revolution 2.0 target: 50% higher cooperative milk procurement by 2028-29