World Bank Projects India's Poverty to Fall from 14.2% to 12.1% by 2028
In its latest Poverty & Equity Brief on India, the World Bank projected that poverty, measured at the $4.20 a day line (the World Bank's poverty line for lower-middle-income countries), will fall from 14.2% in 2026 to 12.1% by 2028.
Between 2011 and 2023, the share of Indians living below $4.20 a day fell from 57.7% to 16.1%, lifting an estimated 496 million people out of poverty.
Over the same period, extreme poverty (below $3 a day, the global line) fell from 27.1% to 2.6%.
The World Bank linked this progress to strong consumption growth, more jobs (especially for women) and larger social transfers such as food subsidies. It noted that the remaining poor are concentrated in households with less education, fewer assets, unstable jobs and more dependants.
Between 2017 and 2023, employment grew by about 134 million, nearly twice the growth of the working-age population, driven largely by rural women entering paid work.
Concerns remain: in 2023, median earnings of the top 10% of workers were about 13 times those of the bottom 10%. Youth unemployment rose from 14.6% to 15.9% between Q1 of 2025-26 and Q1 of 2026-27, and real earnings stayed broadly flat.
World Bank Group: Structure, Role and India's Relationship
The World Bank Group is a family of five international organisations that lend money, give grants and offer advice to developing countries. Its aim is to reduce poverty and help countries grow. Countries are its owners: each member buys shares, and its voting power depends mainly on how many shares it holds. When people say "the World Bank", they usually mean just two of the five members, the IBRD and the IDA, which lend to governments.
The new poverty projections come from the World Bank's Poverty & Equity Brief on India, one of its regular country reports. The Bank measured India's poverty at $4.20 a day because India is a lower-middle-income country, and used the $3 line for extreme poverty, both set in its June 2025 update.
Poverty Measurement in India: Methods and Debates
Poverty measurement means deciding who counts as poor and how many such people there are. India has traditionally used a poverty line based on how much a household spends on consumption each month, using large surveys by the National Statistics Office. International bodies like the World Bank use their own dollar-a-day lines, while NITI Aayog also tracks multidimensional poverty (lack of health, education and living standards). Different methods give different numbers, so it is important to know which line a figure uses.
The 14.2% (2026) to 12.1% (2028) projection uses the World Bank's $4.20 line, not an Indian official poverty line. This is why the figure is much higher than the extreme poverty rate of 2.6%: the same country can look very different depending on the line chosen.
Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)
The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) is India's main survey on jobs and unemployment. It is run by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). It tells us how many people are working, how many are looking for work, and what kind of work they do.
The World Bank's concern about youth unemployment rising from 14.6% to 15.9% between Q1 2025-26 and Q1 2026-27 comes from the kind of quarterly data that the revamped PLFS now provides. It shows that falling poverty can sit alongside weak job quality and stagnant real earnings for young people.
- World Bank poverty projection for India (at $4.20 a day): 14.2% (2026) to 12.1% (2028)
- Poverty at $4.20 a day: 57.7% (2011) to 16.1% (2023); about 496 million people lifted out of poverty
- Extreme poverty at $3 a day: 27.1% (2011) to 2.6% (2023)
- Employment rise 2017 to 2023: about 134 million, nearly twice the growth of the working-age population
- Earnings gap (2023): median earnings of the top 10% about 13 times those of the bottom 10%
- Youth unemployment: 14.6% (Q1 2025-26) to 15.9% (Q1 2026-27)
- Source report: World Bank Poverty & Equity Brief (India)
- World Bank international poverty lines (June 2025 update, 2021 PPP): $3.00, $4.20, $8.30 a day