US Waives 100% Tariffs on Russian Oil Buyers: Why the Relief for India Is Only Temporary
On 16 October 2026, the US President signed an executive order that waives (puts on hold) the new tariffs and sanctions linked to buying Russian oil.
These penalties come from a US law, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, signed on 18 September 2026. It allows extra tariffs of up to 100% on all goods from the five biggest importers of Russian crude oil and gas that make fresh purchases from 18 October. It also allows tariffs of up to 500% on goods from Russia itself.
India is one of the largest buyers of Russian crude, so its exports to the US could have faced these 100% duties. The waiver removes that threat for now.
The waiver has no fixed end date and does not cancel the law. The US can bring the tariffs back at any time, and sanctions under earlier executive orders still stay in place.
The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a trade think tank, gave three possible reasons for the waiver: the US itself agreed (on 9 October) to buy Russian diesel to ease fuel shortages at home; the US has promised not to raise tariffs on China until 10 January 2027; and India-US trade talks are still going on.
GTRI advised India to protect its energy security, keep buying oil on commercial terms, and not give permanent trade concessions in return for tariff relief that can be taken back. Russia's share in India's oil imports fell from 51% in July to 44% in August 2026, as India bought more from the US and the UAE.
India's Energy Security and Import Dependence
Energy security means a country can always get the energy it needs, at a price it can afford. For India, the biggest part of this problem is oil. India buys almost nine out of every ten barrels of crude oil it uses from other countries. So any war, sanctions, price jump or blocked sea route far away can quickly raise prices of petrol, diesel and LPG at home.
The US threat of 100% tariffs on top buyers of Russian oil shows the "geopolitical risk" side of India's energy security. Cheap Russian crude helped India control its import bill, but it also exposed India's exports to US penalties. Because the waiver can be withdrawn at any time, experts are urging India to keep its supplier basket diverse and its energy choices commercial.
Economic Sanctions: Primary vs Secondary Sanctions
Economic sanctions are penalties a country puts on another country, company or person to force a change in behaviour, using trade and money instead of weapons. Primary sanctions stop a country's own citizens and companies from dealing with the target. Secondary sanctions go further: they punish third countries and their companies for dealing with the target. In the US, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) runs most sanctions, and the President can usually grant waivers in the national interest.
The 100% tariff threat is a modern form of secondary pressure: it punishes India not for anything it does to the US, but for buying from Russia. The 16 October waiver suspends this pressure, but because the law stays in force, the threat can return whenever the President decides.
India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA)
The India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) is a trade deal that India and the United States are negotiating to cut tariffs and remove other trade barriers between them. Talks were launched in February 2025 with a goal, called "Mission 500", of more than doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. The deal is being built in stages, with an interim (early) agreement first and a fuller agreement later.
GTRI sees the ongoing BTA talks as one reason for the waiver, since fresh 100% duties on India would have clashed with the trade negotiations. Its advice is that India should not give permanent concessions in the BTA in exchange for tariff relief that the US can reverse at any time.
- Executive order waiving Russia-linked tariffs and sanctions: 16 October 2026
- Law: Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, signed 18 September 2026
- Threatened tariff: up to 100% on goods from the top five importers of Russian crude and gas (fresh purchases from 18 October 2026); up to 500% on Russian goods
- Waiver: no fixed expiry date; law not repealed; earlier Russia sanctions still apply
- US-Russia diesel purchase agreement: 9 October 2026; US-China tariff truce until 10 January 2027
- Russia's share of India's oil imports: 51% (July 2026) to 44% (August 2026)
- India's oil import dependence: 88.2% (2024-25)
- India's SPR: 5.33 MMT, about 9.5 days of crude needs
- India-US interim trade framework: 6 February 2026; US reciprocal tariff 18%; "Mission 500" target of $500 billion trade by 2030