India-UK CETA: Trade Projected to Rise by £25.5 Billion a Year as Businesses Meet in Mumbai
The UK government expects the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) to raise trade between the two countries by about £25.5 billion every year in the long run.
The UK also projects that the deal will add nearly £5 billion a year to its GDP (the total value of goods and services an economy produces) in the long run.
The UK held its first "CETA Marketplace" business event in Mumbai on 13 October 2026, with a large business delegation, senior ministers and city mayors from the North of England.
UK trade officials highlighted that lower tariffs (import taxes) and fewer trade barriers under CETA open new chances for businesses on both sides.
CETA, along with the India-UK Double Contribution Convention (DCC) on social security, came into force on 15 July 2026.
India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
The India-UK CETA is a free trade agreement between India and the United Kingdom. It removes or cuts import taxes (tariffs) on most goods traded between the two countries. It also makes it easier to sell services and for professionals to work in each other's markets. It was signed in July 2025 and came into force on 15 July 2026.
The £25.5 billion figure is a long-run projection, not trade that has already happened. Business events like the Mumbai CETA Marketplace aim to turn the tariff cuts into real deals. The benefits come only when companies actually use the agreement, so awareness among exporters matters a lot.
Free Trade Agreements: Concept and WTO Framework
A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a deal between two or more countries to remove or sharply cut tariffs on most of the goods they trade with each other. Each country still keeps its own tariffs for countries outside the deal. Modern FTAs also cover services, investment, digital trade and rules like rules of origin. India uses different names for such deals, like CEPA, CECA, ECTA, TEPA and CETA, but all are types of FTAs.
The India-UK CETA is one of India's newest FTAs. Events that explain the deal to businesses aim to raise its utilisation, so that the projected gains in trade actually show up.
GATS and the Four Modes of Trade in Services
The General Agreement on Trade in Services, or GATS, is the World Trade Organization's (WTO) rulebook for trade in services. Services are things you cannot drop on your foot: banking, software, teaching, tourism, health care, transport. GATS says there are four ways (called modes) in which a service can cross a border. It also sets rules on how countries open their service markets to foreign suppliers.
The India-UK CETA uses the GATS idea of four modes for its services chapter. India's biggest gains are expected in Mode 1 (IT and business services) and Mode 4: the deal eases entry for business visitors, intra-company transferees, contractual service suppliers and independent professionals, and sets aside places each year for Indian chefs, yoga instructors and classical musicians. The Double Contribution Convention, in force with CETA, makes Mode 4 postings cheaper by removing double social security payments.
- India-UK CETA in force: 15 July 2026 (signed July 2025); Double Contribution Convention in force the same day
- Projected rise in UK-India trade: about £25.5 billion a year in the long run (UK government estimate)
- Projected boost to UK GDP: nearly £5 billion a year in the long run
- First CETA Marketplace business event: Mumbai, 13 October 2026
- UK tariffs removed on about 99% of India's tariff lines; India cuts tariffs on about 90% of tariff lines for UK goods
- Scotch whisky duty in India: 150% → 75% (on entry into force) → 40% (after 10 years)
- GATS four modes: cross-border supply, consumption abroad, commercial presence, presence of natural persons
- India's services exports 2025-26: about US$421.3 billion