CEA's White Paper on AI and India's Workforce: Who Gains, Who Is Exposed
The Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Government of India, V. Anantha Nageswaran, released a white paper (a detailed study paper on a policy question) titled AI, Automation and India's Workforce: Who Gains, Who's Exposed, and How Policy Can Shape the Future.
The paper finds that the share of Indian jobs "exposed" to artificial intelligence (AI) has gone up only modestly since 2012. Exposure means that AI can do some of the tasks in that job.
It also finds that the quality of this exposure has improved. More of the exposed jobs are of the kind where AI helps the worker (complements) rather than replaces the worker (substitutes).
The paper looks at who gains and who is at risk, across states, age groups and types of work, and suggests policies such as reskilling to shape the outcome.
The study adds an India-specific view to a global debate on whether AI will destroy jobs or create better ones.
Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Exposure, Complementarity and Substitution
Artificial intelligence (AI) is computer software that can do tasks that once needed human thinking, such as writing, translating, summarising, spotting patterns or answering questions. When AI can do some tasks of a job, economists say that job is "exposed" to AI. Exposure does not automatically mean the job will disappear. AI can either replace the worker (substitution) or help the worker do more and better work (complementarity), and which of these happens decides whether AI is good or bad news for workers.
The CEA's white paper applies the exposure and complementarity tools to Indian data. Its finding that exposure has risen only modestly since 2012, while the quality of exposure has improved, suggests that more Indian workers are in jobs where AI helps rather than replaces them. It uses this to argue that policy, especially skilling, can shape who gains and who loses.
Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)
The Periodic Labour Force Survey, or PLFS, is India's main official survey of jobs and unemployment. Government survey teams visit homes across the country and ask every member what work they did, if any. From this, the government calculates how many people are working, how many are looking for work and what kinds of jobs they do. It is run by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
Studies on how AI affects Indian jobs need detailed data on what work Indians actually do, broken down by occupation, state and age. Household surveys like the PLFS, and the older NSSO rounds such as 2011-12, are the main source for this, which is why the CEA's paper can trace changes in AI exposure from 2012 onwards.
IndiaAI Mission: India's National AI Programme
The IndiaAI Mission is the Government of India's main programme to build a complete AI ecosystem inside the country. It covers computing power, datasets, home-grown AI models, skilled people, start-up funding and safe and trusted AI. The Union Cabinet approved it in March 2024 with a budget of ₹10,371.92 crore for five years. It is run by MeitY (the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology) through the IndiaAI Independent Business Division.
The CEA's paper says policy can decide whether AI helps or replaces Indian workers. Skilling and AI-ready talent under the IndiaAI Mission's FutureSkills pillar is one of the main government tools for raising complementarity, so that more workers use AI as a helper rather than lose work to it.
- White paper title: AI, Automation and India's Workforce: Who Gains, Who's Exposed, and How Policy Can Shape the Future; released by CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran
- Finding: share of Indian employment exposed to AI has risen modestly since 2012; quality of exposure has improved
- IMF (2024): about 40% of global jobs exposed to AI; 60% in advanced economies; 26% in low-income countries
- ILO-NASK (2025): 1 in 4 jobs worldwide exposed to generative AI; 3.3% in the highest-exposure group
- WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025: net gain of about 78 million jobs by 2030 (170 million created, 92 million displaced)
- PLFS 2025 (age 15+, usual status): LFPR 59.3%, WPR 57.4%, unemployment rate 3.1%
- IndiaAI Mission: approved March 2024; ₹10,371.92 crore over five years