Indian agriculture enters new phase as diets, incomes and climate reshape farming: Report
A research paper on India's agrifood system transformation identifies three distinct phases of Indian agriculture since the Green Revolution
The first phase, roughly 1967 to 1995, was dominated by the drive to achieve food security through high-yielding variety adoption, irrigation expansion, and fertiliser use
A second phase, 1996 to 2014, saw horticulture and livestock gain prominence as rising incomes and urbanisation shifted consumption patterns
The most recent phase, from 2015 onwards, shows agricultural growth averaging above 4.5%, more broad-based across commodities, and shaped increasingly by climate risk and resource constraints
The paper argues that sustaining growth in this third phase requires realigning Green Revolution-era production incentives with climate resilience and sustainability priorities
The Green Revolution (1966-67 onwards)
The Green Revolution is the foundational static topic underlying "Phase 1" of the report and is among the most frequently tested developments in Indian agriculture, covering technology adoption, key institutions, and its regional and environmental legacy.
Key Details
- The High Yielding Varieties Programme was approved in 1966, covering an initial area of about 32 million hectares, importing high-yielding Mexican wheat seed varieties
- Key figures: Norman Borlaug (developer of dwarf high-yielding wheat varieties at CIMMYT, Mexico) and M.S. Swaminathan (led adaptation and large-scale adoption of these varieties in India)
- Foodgrain production rose from about 74 million tonnes in 1966-67 to 152 million tonnes by 1983-84
- Concentrated primarily in Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, and focused mainly on wheat and rice, it also created longer-term environmental pressures — groundwater depletion, declining soil fertility, and reduced crop diversity — that later phases have had to address
The report's Phase 1 (1967-95) is a direct description of the Green Revolution period; understanding its achievements and side-effects explains why later phases needed a shift toward diversification and now climate resilience.
Structural Shift Toward Horticulture and Livestock (Phase 2, 1996-2014)
As foodgrain self-sufficiency was achieved, India's agricultural growth increasingly came from high-value, income-elastic segments of the farm economy rather than staple cereals — a shift with direct relevance to questions on agricultural diversification and rural income growth.
Key Details
- Rising incomes, urbanisation, and post-1991 economic reforms increased demand for fruits, vegetables, milk, meat, eggs, and fish during this period
- Horticulture output has since grown to account for roughly a third of total agricultural GVA
- This period also saw the expansion of institutional support for diversification, including watershed development and horticulture mission programmes that preceded today's National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA)
The report frames this as the transition period between food-security-driven cereal focus and today's more diversified, climate-conscious agricultural policy, making it the essential "middle phase" bridging Green Revolution-era agriculture and the present.
Climate-Resilient Agriculture and the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA)
The report's description of the current ("third") phase — climate risk and resource pressure reshaping farming priorities — corresponds closely to the policy objectives of the NMSA, India's institutional response to climate change in agriculture.
Key Details
- NMSA is one of eight missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC, launched 2008/2014 rollout), aimed at promoting sustainable agriculture through resource-efficient and climate-resilient practices
- Built on four components: Rainfed Area Development, Soil Health Management (with the Soil Health Card scheme), Per Drop More Crop (integrated with the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana), and Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture (research and modelling)
- Promotes crop diversification, integrated farming systems, and a shift away from monoculture cereal cropping toward more resilient, mixed cropping-livestock-agroforestry systems
- Agriculture and allied sectors' share of total Gross Value Added has declined to below 18% even as the sector's output value keeps rising, reflecting the broader structural transformation of the economy
The report's central claim, that Indian agriculture must now prioritise value creation, diversification, and efficient land-water use over simply maximising foodgrain output, is essentially the policy logic that NMSA was designed to institutionalise.
- Phase 1 (food security era): approximately 1967 to 1995
- Foodgrain production growth in Phase 1: ~74 million tonnes (1966-67) to ~152 million tonnes (1983-84)
- Phase 2 (diversification era): approximately 1996 to 2014
- Phase 3 (current, climate/value era): 2015 onwards, growth averaging above 4.5%
- Horticulture's share of agricultural GVA: roughly one-third
- Agriculture and allied sectors' share of total GVA: below 18% (recent estimate)
- NMSA components: Rainfed Area Development, Soil Health Management, Per Drop More Crop, Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture (research arm)