El Nino effect: Monsoon deficit hits 15%; Key pulses and oilseeds at risk
India's cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall deficit stands at 15%, with nearly half of the country's districts affected
The shortfall threatens summer-sown (kharif) crops, particularly pulses and soybean, which are especially sensitive to rainfall variability
Several states have begun water rationing measures to conserve reservoir storage ahead of the winter (rabi) cropping season
Elevated temperatures are compounding soil-moisture deficits across key agricultural regions, intensifying the impact on standing crops
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Monsoon
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases respectively of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — a periodic fluctuation in sea-surface temperature and air pressure across the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño involves anomalous warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, which weakens the Walker Circulation and typically suppresses monsoon convection over the Indian subcontinent, correlating historically with weaker Indian summer monsoons. La Niña, the cooling phase, is generally associated with a stronger Indian monsoon. The correlation is statistical, not absolute — other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can offset or amplify El Niño's effect in a given year.
The current rainfall deficit is being linked to prevailing El Niño conditions in the Pacific, consistent with the historical pattern of El Niño years correlating with below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.
IMD's Long Period Average (LPA) and Monsoon Rainfall Classification
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) measures seasonal (June–September) monsoon performance against the Long Period Average (LPA) — a multi-decadal average of seasonal rainfall — and classifies outcomes into standard bands.
Key Details
- Excess: rainfall above 110% of LPA
- Above Normal: 105–110% of LPA
- Normal: 96–104% of LPA
- Below Normal: 90–96% of LPA
- Deficient: below 90% of LPA
- LPA is periodically revised using a rolling multi-decade reference period
A reported 15% shortfall would place rainfall in the "Deficient" category under IMD's classification, the threshold at which agricultural and drought-management concerns become most acute.
PM-AASHA — Price Protection for Pulses and Oilseed Farmers
The Pradhan Mantri Annadata Aay Sanrakshan Abhiyan (PM-AASHA), launched in September 2018, is the Centre's umbrella scheme to protect pulses, oilseeds, and copra farmers from price crashes, including those caused by output shocks such as a weak monsoon. It has three components.
A monsoon-driven fall in pulses/oilseeds output can trigger PM-AASHA's price-support mechanisms, since reduced supply alongside crop stress often needs to be paired with income protection to prevent farmer distress.
India's Import Dependence on Pulses and Edible Oils
India remains significantly import-dependent for both pulses and edible oils, meaning domestic production shocks (such as from a poor monsoon) directly widen the import bill and expose the economy to global price volatility. Programmes like the National Food Security Mission (NFSM, launched 2007) — which since 2018–19 has absorbed the erstwhile National Mission on Oilseeds and Oil Palm (NMOOP, 2014–15) as its oilseeds component (NFSM-OS&OP) — aim to boost domestic pulses and oilseeds output specifically to reduce this import dependence.
Key Details
- India's edible oil demand for 2025–26 is estimated at roughly 26.3 million tonnes, with domestic production covering only about 40% of demand — around 60% is met through imports
- NFSM (2007): centrally sponsored scheme covering rice, wheat, pulses, coarse cereals, and oilseeds through area expansion and productivity measures
- NMOOP (2014–15) merged into NFSM as NFSM-OS&OP from 2018–19
- Pulses and oilseeds are both classified as rain-fed, monsoon-sensitive crops, making them disproportionately vulnerable to seasonal rainfall shortfalls compared to irrigated staples like rice
A poor monsoon directly undermines India's stated self-sufficiency goals for pulses and edible oils under NFSM-OS&OP, since a shortfall in the current kharif season could widen import reliance for the following marketing year.
- Reported monsoon rainfall deficit: 15%, affecting nearly half of India's districts
- IMD "Deficient" rainfall classification threshold: below 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA)
- IMD "Below Normal" classification: 90–96% of LPA
- El Niño = warm phase of ENSO in the central/eastern Pacific; La Niña = cool phase
- PM-AASHA launched: September 2018; components — PSS, PDPS, PPPS
- CACP (recommends MSP): established 1965
- India's edible oil import dependence, 2025–26: approximately 60% of domestic demand (domestic output covers ~40%)
- NFSM launched: 2007; NMOOP (2014–15) merged into NFSM as NFSM-OS&OP from 2018–19