Why India’s imports of 3 agri-commodities may touch a new high this year
A weakening southwest monsoon, linked to strengthening El Nino conditions, has raised the prospect that India's imports of edible oils, pulses and cotton could touch new highs in 2026
June 2026 rainfall came in around 38-42% below normal — among the steepest early-season monsoon deficits in a decade — disrupting sowing in several rain-fed regions
Edible oils (palm, soy, sunflower) remain India's most import-dependent food commodity, with over 60% of domestic consumption met through imports
Pulses, where India had reduced import reliance in recent years, face renewed risk if rain-sensitive crops like arhar (tur) and urad underperform
Cotton, once a major net exporter, has increasingly turned to imports due to falling yields, pest damage and rising domestic mill consumption
Edible Oil Import Dependence and the National Mission on Edible Oils-Oilseeds (NMEO-Oilseeds)
India is the world's largest importer of vegetable oils, importing more than 60% of its edible oil requirement, mainly palm oil (from Indonesia/Malaysia), soybean oil and sunflower oil. To reduce this dependence, the Union Cabinet approved the National Mission on Edible Oils-Oilseeds (NMEO-Oilseeds) for 2024-25 to 2030-31, with an outlay of Rs 10,103 crore, aiming for Atmanirbharta (self-sufficiency) in edible oils.
Key Details
- Target: raise primary oilseed production from 39 million tonnes (2022-23) to 69.7 million tonnes by 2030-31
- Goal: 25.45 million tonnes of domestic edible oil production, meeting 72% of projected national requirement by 2030-31
- Focus crops: rapeseed-mustard, groundnut, soybean, sunflower, sesamum, safflower, niger, linseed, castor, plus secondary sources (cottonseed, rice bran, tree-borne oilseeds)
- A related scheme, NMEO-Oil Palm (NMEO-OP), separately targets oil palm cultivation expansion, mainly in the North-East and Andaman & Nicobar Islands
A weak monsoon affects the rain-fed oilseed crops (groundnut, sesame, soybean) targeted by NMEO-Oilseeds, meaning any shortfall directly increases reliance on imported palm/soy/sunflower oil in the very year the mission is meant to start reducing that reliance.
MSP, CACP and the Mission for Aatmanirbharta in Pulses
The Minimum Support Price (MSP) for pulses is recommended by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), an advisory body under the Ministry of Agriculture that factors in production costs, market trends and inter-crop price parity before the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approves the final MSP. To reduce import dependence in pulses, the Union Cabinet approved the Mission for Aatmanirbharta in Pulses (2025-26 to 2030-31) with an outlay of Rs 11,440 crore.
Key Details
- Focus crops: Tur (arhar/pigeon pea), Urad (black gram) and Masoor (red lentil)
- The mission guarantees 100% MSP procurement of these three pulses for four years, procured by NAFED and NCCF under the Price Support Scheme (PSS) component of PM-AASHA
- Production target: scale up to 350 lakh tonnes of pulses by 2030-31, with cultivation area expanding to 310 lakh hectares (including 35 lakh hectares of rice fallow land)
- CACP recommends MSP for 22 crops in total, spanning cereals, pulses, oilseeds and commercial crops
Because tur and urad are largely rain-fed kharif crops, an El Nino-linked monsoon deficit directly threatens the production gains the Aatmanirbharta in Pulses mission is designed to lock in, risking a reversal of India's recent progress toward pulses self-sufficiency.
Cotton's Shift from Net Exporter to Net Importer — the Pink Bollworm Factor
India's cotton output has declined sharply from a peak of about 39.8 million bales (2013-14) to roughly 29.5 million bales (2024-25), with yields falling to around 436-450 kg/ha — far below China's yield of around 1,993 kg/ha. The principal cause is the pink bollworm (PBW), a pest that developed resistance to the Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) toxin genes engineered into Bt cotton, India's dominant cotton variety since the early 2000s.
Key Details
- PBW resistance to Bt cotton crossed the economic threshold level (ETL) in India's Central Zone (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh) around 2014, triggering the yield decline
- Cotton imports rose from USD 518.4 million (2023-24) to USD 1.04 billion (2024-25), while exports fell from USD 729.4 million to USD 660.5 million over the same period
- In 2024-25, cotton imports were projected at around 30 lakh bales versus exports of about 17 lakh bales — India moving from net exporter to net importer
- The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), along with Krishi Vigyan Kendras, undertakes MSP procurement and extension work to improve farm practices and yields
A poor monsoon compounds the existing pink-bollworm-driven yield crisis, since drought stress lowers boll formation while also stressing plants in ways that can worsen pest susceptibility, pushing cotton imports even higher this year.
- June 2026 monsoon rainfall deficit: ~38-42% below normal (steepest early-season deficit in a decade)
- Edible oil import dependence: over 60% of domestic consumption
- NMEO-Oilseeds (2024-25 to 2030-31): Rs 10,103 crore outlay; oilseed production target 69.7 million tonnes by 2030-31
- Mission for Aatmanirbharta in Pulses (2025-26 to 2030-31): Rs 11,440 crore outlay; production target 350 lakh tonnes by 2030-31
- India cotton production: fell from ~39.8 million bales (2013-14) to ~29.5 million bales (2024-25)
- India cotton yield: ~436-450 kg/ha vs China's ~1,993 kg/ha
- Cotton imports rose from USD 518.4 million (2023-24) to USD 1.04 billion (2024-25)
- CPI food weight: over 40%, meaning crop supply shocks feed directly into headline retail inflation