Kharif sowing picks up, but still 21% below last year
Total kharif sowing stood at 350.85 lakh hectares as of early July 2026, a 21% decline from 442.8 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year
Paddy acreage is down 13% (60.24 lakh hectares against 69.3 lakh hectares last year), while pulses and oilseeds show sharper declines
Oilseeds sowing fell to 66.31 lakh hectares from 109.27 lakh hectares, and pulses to 37.15 lakh hectares from 47.49 lakh hectares in the year-ago period
Cotton acreage dropped to 63.18 lakh hectares from 82 lakh hectares, and area under coarse cereals (Shri Anna) fell to 60.12 lakh hectares from 71.86 lakh hectares
Sugarcane acreage bucked the overall trend with a slight increase, while a below-normal rainfall forecast for July raises concerns about crop output and food inflation
Kharif Cropping Season and the Southwest Monsoon
The kharif (monsoon) cropping season in India runs broadly from June to September/October, coinciding with the southwest monsoon, which delivers nearly 70–75% of India's annual rainfall. Sowing progress each week is tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare against the corresponding period of the previous year, making early-season rainfall timing critical for acreage.
Key Details
- Major kharif crops: paddy (rice), maize, jowar/bajra (coarse cereals), pulses (tur, moong, urad), oilseeds (soybean, groundnut), cotton, and sugarcane
- The southwest monsoon typically sets in over Kerala around June 1 and covers the entire country by early July
- Delayed onset or below-normal early-season rainfall directly compresses the sowing window, as seen in the current season's acreage shortfall
- The complementary rabi season (October–March) depends on residual soil moisture and irrigation, and is less monsoon-dependent
The 21% acreage shortfall reflects a delayed and spatially uneven monsoon onset that compressed the sowing window for moisture-sensitive crops like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds during the critical early kharif period.
IMD Rainfall Classification — Departure from Long Period Average (LPA)
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) classifies seasonal/monthly rainfall performance by percentage departure from the Long Period Average (LPA) — the average rainfall over a defined base period (currently 1971–2020), used as the benchmark for monsoon forecasting.
Key Details
- Categories (all-India/regional scale): Large Excess (+60% or more), Excess (>110% of LPA), Above Normal (104–110%), Normal (96–104%), Below Normal (90–96%), Deficient (<90% of LPA), Large Deficient (60% or more below normal)
- LPA for all-India southwest monsoon rainfall is approximately 868.6 mm (based on the 1971–2020 period)
- IMD's below-normal/deficient forecasts for a season are watched closely by policymakers because they correlate with kharif output shortfalls and food-price pressure
The below-normal rainfall forecast cited for July, following an already delayed onset, is the immediate meteorological driver behind the reported acreage shortfall across paddy, pulses, and oilseeds.
CACP and the Minimum Support Price (MSP) Mechanism
The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), an attached office of the Ministry of Agriculture, recommends Minimum Support Prices for 22 mandated crops (including all major kharif and rabi crops) each season; the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) takes the final decision on MSP levels.
Key Details
- CACP considers cost of production, demand-supply balance, domestic/international prices, inter-crop price parity, and terms of trade between agriculture and non-agriculture sectors
- Government policy (since Union Budget 2018-19) targets MSP at a minimum of 1.5 times the all-India weighted average cost of production
- MSP recommendations are made separately for five groups: kharif crops, rabi crops, sugarcane, raw jute, and copra
- MSP operates alongside procurement agencies such as the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and NAFED for market intervention
A shortfall in kharif sowing raises the stakes for MSP-linked procurement planning and price-support operations, since lower acreage of pulses and oilseeds — crops India is often import-dependent on — can widen the demand-supply gap the MSP/procurement system is meant to buffer.
Food Inflation Transmission and Crop Output Linkages
Shortfalls in kharif sowing, particularly for pulses and oilseeds where India already relies on imports to meet domestic demand, feed directly into the food component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which carries the largest weight in India's inflation-targeting framework.
Key Details
- Food and beverages carry roughly 45.86% weight in the CPI (combined) basket used by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee for inflation targeting
- Pulses and edible oils are historically volatile sub-groups within CPI food inflation due to India's import dependence (India imports a significant share of its edible oil requirement)
- The RBI's inflation target under the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework (since 2016, based on the Urjit Patel Committee recommendations) is 4% CPI inflation with a +/-2% tolerance band
A sustained kharif acreage shortfall in pulses and oilseeds raises the risk of renewed food-inflation pressure, which is directly relevant to the RBI's inflation-targeting mandate and the government's food-management response (buffer stocks, import duty tweaks).
- Total kharif sowing: 350.85 lakh hectares (down 21% from 442.8 lakh hectares last year)
- Paddy: 60.24 lakh hectares (down 13% from 69.3 lakh hectares)
- Oilseeds: 66.31 lakh hectares (down from 109.27 lakh hectares)
- Pulses: 37.15 lakh hectares (down from 47.49 lakh hectares)
- Cotton: 63.18 lakh hectares (down from 82 lakh hectares)
- Coarse cereals (Shri Anna): 60.12 lakh hectares (down from 71.86 lakh hectares)
- IMD's all-India southwest monsoon LPA (1971–2020 base): approximately 868.6 mm
- RBI's flexible inflation target: 4% CPI, with a tolerance band of +/-2%