India’s 77 paddy & 65 maize-growing districts prone to at least 10% yield loss on El Nino impact

A study of historical El Niño episodes found that 77 paddy-growing districts and 65 maize-growing districts in India are prone to yield losses of at least 10...

What Happened

A study of historical El Niño episodes found that 77 paddy-growing districts and 65 maize-growing districts in India are prone to yield losses of at least 10% during El Niño years.
The affected districts are concentrated in states including Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Odisha — all major kharif crop producers.
El Niño's impact on kharif crops is documented to be 2 to 3 times greater than its impact on rabi crops, because El Niño peaks in intensity during the June-September southwest monsoon season — precisely the period when kharif crops are sown and grown.
With El Niño conditions having been declared onset in 2026, the Indian Meteorological Department has downgraded its seasonal rainfall forecast, raising concern over the coming kharif season.
The Agriculture Ministry has placed approximately 150 to 200 districts on priority watch in response to the emerging threat, and a multi-ministry task force is developing an assessment of crop impacts and contingency import options.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has issued an advisory noting that this El Niño cycle may be more damaging than those in recent years.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

ENSO is a periodic climate pattern involving anomalous warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño events typically last 9 to 12 months but can persist longer. The Southern Oscillation refers to the associated atmospheric pressure anomaly measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

During El Niño: trade winds in the Pacific weaken, allowing warm water to move eastward; this reduces evaporation over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean, suppressing moisture feed to the Indian monsoon.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): a secondary factor; a positive IOD can partially offset El Niño's negative impact on Indian rainfall, while a negative IOD amplifies it.
ENSO cycle: typically 2-7 years between episodes.
IMD criteria for El Niño: Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly of +0.5°C or above, sustained over five consecutive three-month periods.
Historical El Niño years with below-normal monsoon in India: 2002, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2023.

Connection to this news: The 2026 El Niño onset has prompted a review of historically vulnerable districts to pre-position contingency crop and food management plans.

Kharif Crops and Monsoon Dependence

Kharif crops are cultivated in the rainy season (June-July sowing, September-October harvest) and are almost entirely dependent on southwest monsoon rainfall. They are the primary production season for staple foods including rice, maize, soybean, cotton, groundnut, and coarse cereals.

Major kharif crops: paddy (rice), maize, sorghum (jowar), pearl millet (bajra), cotton, soybean, groundnut, sugarcane, tur (arhar/pigeon pea).
Paddy (rice): India is the world's second-largest producer and the largest exporter; heavily irrigated in Punjab and Haryana but rain-dependent in eastern, central, and peninsular India.
Maize: produced largely in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, UP, and Rajasthan; used for food, animal feed, and starch processing.
The districts identified as high-risk (77 paddy, 65 maize) are predominantly rain-fed — they lack access to irrigation and are therefore most exposed to monsoon deficits.
El Niño's second-half effect: the moisture deficit intensifies in August-September, hitting the grain-filling and reproductive stages of kharif crops most critically.

Connection to this news: The 77 paddy and 65 maize districts identified as prone to 10%+ yield loss are overwhelmingly concentrated in rain-fed agricultural belts across central and eastern India.

India's District-Level Agricultural Vulnerability Assessment

Government agencies and academic institutions periodically map agricultural districts by vulnerability to climate shocks, using metrics such as historical yield volatility, rainfall dependence, irrigation coverage, and poverty rates. Such assessments inform the National Contingency Crop Planning framework developed by ICAR.

ICAR (Indian Council of Agricultural Research) prepares district-level Contingency Crop Plans for drought, flood, and late-onset monsoon scenarios.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) coordinates response in case of declared agricultural disasters.
Crop insurance (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, PMFBY) is the primary financial risk transfer mechanism; however, penetration remains low in many high-risk districts.
The IMD's Long Period Average (LPA) serves as the reference: seasonal rainfall below 90% LPA is classified as "below normal" and below 75% LPA as "deficient."

Connection to this news: The identification of 77 paddy and 65 maize districts as El Niño-vulnerable provides the empirical foundation for targeted contingency planning — additional credit support, seed replacement, alternative crop advisories, and PMFBY claim readiness.

Key Facts & Data

Paddy-growing districts at risk of 10%+ yield loss during El Niño: 77
Maize-growing districts at risk of 10%+ yield loss during El Niño: 65
Most affected states: Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, UP, Jharkhand, Odisha
El Niño impact on kharif: 2-3x greater than on rabi crops
El Niño onset declared: 2026 (IMD)
IMD seasonal rainfall forecast downgraded to ~90% of Long Period Average
Districts on Agriculture Ministry priority watch: 150-200
Historical El Niño years with below-normal Indian monsoon: 2002, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2023
Key kharif crops at risk: paddy, maize, soybean, cotton, sugarcane
El Niño criterion: Nino 3.4 SST anomaly of +0.5°C sustained over five consecutive 3-month periods