India's Food Grain Production Target of 450 Million Tonnes by 2047: Agriculture Policy Analysis
The Union Agriculture Ministry has stated that India needs to raise its food grain production to 450 million tonnes by 2047 — a goal aligned with the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision of feeding a projected population of 1.6 billion people.
A committee has been constituted to examine issues of agricultural productivity, identify constraints, and recommend measures to achieve the 2047 target.
India's food grain output in 2025–26 reached an all-time high of 376.563 million tonnes — a 5.3% increase over the previous year's 357.73 million tonnes — but the 2047 target still requires an additional ~74 million tonnes from current levels.
The statement emphasised the need to address long-standing challenges including fragmented landholdings, declining water tables, soil health degradation, and climate variability.
Minimum Support Price (MSP): Policy Mechanism and Institutional Framework
The Minimum Support Price (MSP) is the price at which the government purchases selected crops from farmers, providing a floor price guarantee and incentivising production of priority crops. The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) — an attached office under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare — recommends MSPs for 23 crops annually. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) takes the final decision. MSP is announced before sowing seasons (kharif before June; rabi before October) to guide farmer cropping decisions.
The 450 MT target by 2047 will require sustained MSP incentives, expanded procurement infrastructure, and productivity improvements in lagging crops — all of which depend on how effectively the CACP and CCEA mechanism functions.
National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013
The National Food Security Act, 2013 (NFSA) is a rights-based framework that entitles up to 75% of the rural population and 50% of the urban population to subsidised food grains under the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). Covered persons receive 5 kg of food grains per person per month at highly subsidised prices (rice at ₹3/kg, wheat at ₹2/kg, coarse grains at ₹1/kg). The Act covers approximately 81.35 crore (813.5 million) people and places a statutory obligation on the government to procure and distribute adequate stocks.
Reaching 450 MT production is partly a food security imperative — India needs the buffer stocks and supply margins to meet its NFSA obligations to 813 million beneficiaries while also growing exports.
Green Revolution Legacy and the Need for a Second Green Revolution
India's first Green Revolution (1960s–70s) transformed the country from a food-deficit nation to a food-surplus one through high-yielding varieties (HYV) of wheat and rice, chemical fertilisers, irrigation expansion, and MSP-backed procurement. Production rose from approximately 82 million tonnes (1960–61) to 176 million tonnes (1990–91). However, the Green Revolution created new challenges: overexploitation of groundwater (especially in Punjab, Haryana, and western UP), monoculture dependence, soil degradation, stubble burning, and regional imbalance (benefits concentrated in irrigated north-India belt).
Key Details
- Green Revolution architect: M.S. Swaminathan (who also chaired the National Commission on Farmers, 2004–06).
- HYV seeds: IR-8 (rice — "miracle rice") and Norin-10 derivative (wheat); semi-dwarf varieties developed at IRRI and CIMMYT.
- Food grain production trajectory: 82 MT (1960–61) → 176 MT (1990–91) → 284 MT (2012–13) → 376 MT (2025–26).
- Groundwater crisis: Punjab's water table is declining by 0.5–1 metre per year in some districts; 85% of agricultural water in India comes from groundwater.
- PM-PRANAM scheme (2023): incentivises states to reduce chemical fertiliser use; connects to soil health card scheme.
The committee examining productivity issues must reckon with the legacies of Green Revolution-era farming — moving toward climate-resilient, resource-efficient agriculture to sustainably achieve the 450 MT target.
Agricultural Productivity and Land Reforms
India's average food grain yield (approximately 2.5 tonnes per hectare) remains significantly below global leaders such as China (~6 t/ha for rice), the USA (~8 t/ha for maize), and the Netherlands. Key structural constraints include fragmented landholdings (average holding: ~1.08 hectares in 2015–16), inadequate irrigation coverage (~52% of net sown area under irrigation), limited credit access for small farmers, and inadequate post-harvest infrastructure (30–40% losses). PM-KISAN (2019) provides direct income support of ₹6,000/year to farmers.
Key Details
- Net sown area: approximately 140 million hectares; gross cropped area: approximately 198 million hectares.
- Cropping intensity: ~141%; to raise production without expanding area, intensity and yield must increase.
- E-NAM (National Agriculture Market): launched 2016; online trading platform for APMC mandis; over 1,361 mandis across 23 states connected.
- Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): launched 2016; crop insurance scheme; government pays premium above 2% (kharif) / 1.5% (rabi).
- Per Agriculture Census 2015–16: 86.1% of farmers are small and marginal (below 2 hectares).
The 450 MT target cannot be met through area expansion alone; it requires closing the yield gap through technology (precision agriculture, bio-fortified varieties), institutional reform (land leasing laws, FPO scaling), and resilient infrastructure.
- Food grain production 2025–26: record 376.563 million tonnes (previous record: 357.73 MT in 2024–25)
- Target for 2047: 450 million tonnes — a required increase of ~74 MT from current levels
- Rice production 2025–26: 154.024 million tonnes; Wheat: 120.657 million tonnes
- CACP recommends MSP for 23 crops; CCEA takes final decision
- MSP formula: minimum 50% above A2+FL weighted average cost of production
- NFSA 2013 coverage: ~813.5 million people (up to 75% rural + 50% urban population)
- PMGKAY (free food grains under NFSA): extended till December 2028
- Average farm holding size (2015–16): 1.08 hectares; 86.1% farmers are small/marginal
- Green Revolution start: 1960s; production in 1960–61: ~82 million tonnes