India navigating global uncertainties like a ‘Chakravyuh’: Shaktikanta Das
Former RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, speaking at a high-level forum on April 9, 2026, likened India's management of global economic crises to navigating a "Chakravyuh" — the ancient military formation from the Mahabharata.
Das argued that entering a Chakravyuh (deploying stimulus during a crisis) is relatively easy, but exiting it without destabilising the economy is the real challenge — requiring calibrated, timely withdrawal of support measures.
He described India's approach as combining fiscal and monetary stimulus with timely rollbacks, preventing excess liquidity and economic "froth."
Das noted India has consistently emerged stronger from every major global crisis, citing macroeconomic stability, consistent policy decisions, infrastructure development, and strong domestic demand as key factors.
He urged Indian businesses to build resilience amid current global volatility, outlining a seven-point strategy including stronger balance sheets, supply chain diversification, and job protection and reskilling.
Das also called India a "safe anchor" amid global economic storms, noting its ability to maintain inflation closer to targets than peers like the US and Germany during 2021–2024.
India's Macroeconomic Resilience — Track Record Across Crises
India navigated several major global economic shocks in the 2010s and 2020s: the 2013 "taper tantrum," the 2016 demonetisation disruption, the 2018 IL&FS crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), and the global inflation shock of 2022. In each case, India combined targeted fiscal support with eventual consolidation, while the RBI used unconventional tools (LTRO, SLF-MF) alongside rate adjustments.
Key Details
- 2013 Taper Tantrum: Rupee fell sharply; RBI deployed emergency measures; eventually stabilised
- COVID-19 response: Moratorium on loans, TLTRO, ₹20 lakh crore Aatma Nirbhar package; RBI repo cuts to 4%
- 2022 Global Inflation: India's CPI peaked at ~7.8%; RBI raised rates by 250 bps in FY23; inflation brought back toward 4% target
- India's average GDP growth 2014–2024: ~6.5% (fastest-growing major economy in multiple years)
- IMF projects India to contribute 17% to global real GDP growth in 2026 — second only to China
Das's Chakravyuh metaphor encapsulates exactly this pattern — India's willingness to deploy aggressive stimulus when needed, but then execute a disciplined exit. This is the institutional memory he is urging policymakers and businesses to retain.
Inflation Targeting Framework in India
India formally adopted a flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework in 2016 through an amendment to the RBI Act. The target is 4% CPI inflation, with a tolerance band of ±2% (2%–6%). If inflation remains outside the band for three consecutive quarters, the RBI must explain the deviation and remedial action to the government. This framework gives the RBI a clear mandate and makes monetary policy credible and predictable.
Key Details
- Inflation target: 4% CPI (±2% tolerance band)
- Adopted: 2016 via amendment to RBI Act, 1934
- If breached for 3 consecutive quarters: RBI must write to government
- FY27 CPI inflation projection (as per April 2026 MPC): 4.6%
- India's inflation management was notably more effective than the US and Germany during 2021–2024
Das's point about India controlling inflation more effectively than developed economies during 2021–2024 directly validates the FIT framework's success and the MPC's credibility — a key component of investor and market confidence.
Chakravyuh — The Mahabharata Metaphor and Policy Communication
In the Mahabharata, the Chakravyuh (also called Padmavyuha) is a rotating, multi-layered military formation that is extremely difficult to penetrate and even harder to exit. Only Arjuna knew how to enter and exit it; Abhimanyu knew how to enter but not exit, which proved fatal. Das using this metaphor for economic policymaking has deep resonance: deploying stimulus (entering the Chakravyuh) without a clear exit plan risks entrapment — as seen in Japan's decades of ultra-low rates or the post-2008 Western central bank predicament.
Key Details
- The metaphor highlights the asymmetric challenge: entry (stimulus) is politically popular; exit (tightening) is painful
- Timely exit prevents: asset price bubbles, excess leverage, entrenched inflation
- India's experience: RBI began withdrawing accommodation post-COVID before many developed-country central banks, avoiding the 2022–23 inflation spiral seen elsewhere
- This approach preserves policy space for future crises
Das is essentially arguing India learned from global mistakes — it entered the Chakravyuh (stimulus) with an exit plan, unlike those who got trapped inside.
- Das's metaphor: "Chakravyuh" — easy to enter crisis-response mode; difficult to exit without destabilising
- India's IMF-projected GDP growth FY26: 7.6%; FY27 RBI projection: 6.9%
- India's contribution to global real GDP growth (2026 IMF forecast): 17% — second only to China
- India's CPI inflation: managed more effectively than US and Germany during 2021–2024
- RBI rate hike cycle (FY23): 250 basis points to combat post-COVID global inflation
- Das's seven-point business resilience strategy: stronger balance sheets, supply chain diversification, job protection and reskilling (among key pillars)
- India described as a "safe anchor" amid global volatility driven by Iran war and tariff disruptions
- Flexible Inflation Targeting framework adopted: 2016; target: 4% CPI (±2%)