US-Iran Conflict
Origins, Escalation, and JCPOA Collapse
The US-Israel war on Iran, which began February 28, 2026, is rooted in the collapse of the JCPOA and Iran's subsequent uranium enrichment programme, compounded by the Gaza conflict (October 2023 onwards) and Iran's support for the "Axis of Resistance."
- JCPOA (2015): capped Iran's enrichment at 3.67%; limited centrifuge count; required IAEA access; gave Iran sanctions relief
- US withdrew from JCPOA: May 2018 (Trump's first term); "Maximum Pressure" sanctions reimposed
- Iran's enrichment trajectory: 3.67% (JCPOA) → 20% (2021) → 60% (2023) → approaching weapons-grade 90%
- Iran suspended IAEA cooperation following the February 2026 US-Israel attack; EU3 (UK, France, Germany) triggered the JCPOA snapback mechanism
- US strikes objectives: destroy Iranian nuclear infrastructure (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan), degrade IRGC leadership, coerce Iran into accepting a new nuclear deal with no enrichment
- Iran's retaliation: ballistic missiles and drones targeting US bases in Iraq and Syria, Israeli territory, and Gulf states hosting US forces (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE)
- The Joint Chiefs' reported concern about "critical munitions shortfalls" is significant given US munitions depletion due to Ukraine support since 2022
● Tracked since February 24, 2026 · last seen June 11, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
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