Thucydides Trap
The term was coined by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison around 2011, popularised in his 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? It describes the historical tendency for war when a rising power threatens to displace an established hegemon — drawing on Thucydides' observation that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." Allison studied 16 historical cases of rising versus ruling powers; 12 ended in war.
- Concept coined by Graham Allison; foundational text is Destined for War (2017).
- 16 historical cases studied; 12 resulted in war.
- Applied primarily to the US-China power transition in contemporary international relations.
- Xi Jinping has repeatedly invoked this concept in high-level diplomatic discourse.
● Tracked since May 15, 2026 · last seen May 19, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
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