India's Macroeconomic Buffers
Resilience Factors
Governor Malhotra's assertion that India's fundamentals are stronger than in previous crisis episodes refers to several structural improvements since the 2013 'Taper Tantrum' and the 2018 oil price shock, when India's CAD, fiscal deficit, and inflation were simultaneously elevated. The current buffers include: (1) Adequate foreign exchange reserves; (2) Stronger services export base; (3) Robust remittance inflows; (4) Lower twin deficits compared to earlier periods; and (5) A credible inflation-targeting framework that anchors expectations.
- India's foreign exchange reserves stood at approximately $640–670 billion range in early 2026 — among the highest ever — providing import cover of over 10 months.
- India is the world's largest recipient of remittances; FY25 remittances were approximately $129 billion.
- India's fiscal deficit has been consolidated from 9.2% of GDP in FY21 to a target of below 4.5% by FY26.
- The 2013 Taper Tantrum saw India's CAD at 4.8% of GDP and inflation above 10% — the contrast with the current situation is stark.
● Tracked since April 09, 2026 · last seen April 09, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
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