India's Exposure
Oil Imports and the Shadow Fleet Risk
India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements. West Asia — particularly the Gulf states transiting through the Strait of Hormuz — is the dominant source. India has not operated shadow tankers, but its oil supply chains are directly disrupted when the strait is compromised.
- India imported approximately 5.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024–25; roughly 40–45% comes from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait — all of which route through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran supplies roughly 1–2% of India's oil imports under a special arrangement; Chabahar port connectivity adds a non-Hormuz dimension.
- India has historically imported discounted Russian crude (routed via Arctic/Baltic rather than Hormuz) since 2022 — but Gulf oil remains the dominant input.
- A prolonged Hormuz closure would force India toward spot market purchases at elevated prices, widening the current account deficit and stoking inflation.
- SBI Research estimates every $10/barrel rise in crude prices raises India's inflation by 35–40 basis points and widens the current account deficit by ~36 basis points.
● Tracked since March 11, 2026 · last seen May 25, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
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