India's Drought Classification Framework (Manual for Drought Management)

A drought is a long period when an area gets much less water than it normally does, so that crops, animals and people suffer. In India, the rules for measuring and declaring a drought are set out in the Manual for Drought Management, issued by the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. The manual tells state governments which signals to check, how to decide whether a drought is "moderate" or "severe", and how to get relief money. The final decision to declare a drought belongs to the state government.

Why does India need a fixed framework?

Drought builds up slowly. Unlike a flood or a cyclone, there is no single day when it "arrives". Without clear rules, one state might declare drought too early and another too late, and farmers in similar conditions would get very different help. A fixed, scientific framework makes declarations fair, comparable across states and quick enough for relief to reach farmers in time. It also decides who pays: the state alone, or the Centre too.

What are the types of drought?

Experts describe drought in layers, each following the one before:

• Meteorological drought: rainfall is much lower than normal for an area.
• Hydrological drought: water in rivers, reservoirs, lakes and groundwater falls well below normal, because of long rain shortage.
• Agricultural drought: soil does not have enough moisture for crops, so crops wilt and yields fall.
• Socio-economic drought: the shortage starts hurting people's incomes, food supply and jobs.

Think of it like a family's salary being cut (less rain). Soon the savings run low (reservoirs and groundwater). Then the kitchen runs short (crops). Finally the family's whole life is affected (socio-economic drought).

Where did the framework come from?

• India began targeted programmes in drought-prone areas long ago: the Drought Prone Areas Programme (DPAP) started in 1973-74 and the Desert Development Programme (DDP) in 1977-78. In 2009 these were merged into the Integrated Watershed Management Programme, which became the watershed part of the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) in 2015-16.
• The first Manual for Drought Management came in 2009. Its rules were mostly advisory and gave states wide freedom.
• In Swaraj Abhiyan v. Union of India (2016), a Supreme Court bench of Justices Madan B. Lokur and N. V. Ramana heard a public interest case about drought in several states. On 11 May 2016, the Court directed the Union to revise the drought manual by the end of 2016, to set up a National Disaster Mitigation Fund under Section 47 of the Disaster Management Act, 2005, and to prepare a national plan for drought.
• The Centre then issued a revised manual in 2016, which made the scientific indicators compulsory. It was updated again in 2020.

How is a drought declared? (the three-step method)

1. Step 1, the trigger (mandatory indicators): the state first checks rainfall. It looks at rainfall deviation (how far rain is below normal), the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), and dry spells (long breaks with almost no rain). Only if these show trouble does the area move to the next step.
2. Step 2, the impact indicators: the state checks how badly the land and crops are hurt. There are four types, and the state picks any three:
3. Agriculture: how much of the normal area was actually sown.
4. Remote sensing: satellite measures of plant health, such as NDVI and NDWI.
5. Soil moisture: how much water is left in the soil for roots.

6. Hydrology: reservoir storage and groundwater levels. If all three chosen indicators are in the "severe" range, the drought is severe. If two of the three are in the "moderate" or "severe" range, it is moderate. [Unverified: sources differ slightly on this exact combination rule.]

7. Step 3, ground truthing: officials visit a sample of villages and check crop damage in the field. A crop loss of 33% or more supports a drought declaration. If 80% of the field checks show crop loss above 50%, the state can upgrade the drought from moderate to severe.

The state then issues a drought notification for the affected districts or blocks (tehsils, mandals or taluks). For the kharif season, the final notification is expected by 31 October. [Unverified]

How is relief money given?

• State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF): created under Section 48(1)(a) of the Disaster Management Act, 2005. The state can spend it for both moderate and severe droughts.
• National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF): created under Section 46 of the same Act. Help from it is available only for severe drought, when the SDRF is not enough.
• To get NDRF money, the state sends a memorandum (a formal request with details of the loss) to the Centre. An Inter-Ministerial Central Team (IMCT) visits and assesses the damage. A sub-committee of the National Executive Committee examines the report, and a High-Level Committee chaired by the Union Home Minister approves the amount.

How does the IMD describe a bad monsoon?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) only measures rainfall; it does not declare drought. For a district or region, rainfall within 19% above or below normal is "normal", 20% to 59% below is "deficient" and 60% to 99% below is "large deficient". For the whole country, IMD calls a season a "deficient year" when rainfall is more than 10% below the long-period average and 20% to 40% of the country is under drought conditions.

If more than 40% of the area is affected, it is a "large deficient year". (IMD earlier called these an "all-India drought year" and a "severe drought year".)

India's position

India has one of the world's largest rain-fed farming systems: a large share of its farmland has no assured irrigation and depends on the monsoon. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra (Marathwada and Vidarbha), Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Bundelkhand are among the most drought-prone regions. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is the nodal ministry for drought, unlike most other disasters, where the Ministry of Home Affairs leads. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) also issued national guidelines on drought management in 2010.

Commonly confused concepts

• Drought vs aridity: aridity is a permanent dry climate (like the Thar desert). Drought is a temporary shortage compared to what is normal for that place. Even a rainy region like Kerala can face drought.
• Meteorological vs agricultural drought: an area can have below-normal rain without crop failure, if irrigation or stored soil moisture saves the crop. The manual checks both for this reason.
• IMD's role vs the state's role: IMD measures rainfall and classifies it. Only the state government declares a drought.
• SDRF vs NDRF: the SDRF is the state's first line of money (the Centre contributes most of it); the NDRF is extra help from the Centre only for severe calamities.
• NDRF (fund) vs NDRF (force): the National Disaster Response Fund is money; the National Disaster Response Force is the specialised rescue force. Both share the same short form.

Issues, criticism and the way forward

• Too strict for farmers: critics say the compulsory indicators make it harder to declare drought. A district may have poor rain and visible distress but still fail to meet every technical test, so farmers get no relief.
• Mismatch with relief norms: the manual treats crop loss above 50% as "severe", while the SDRF and NDRF norms of the Ministry of Home Affairs allow input subsidy for crop loss of 33% or more. States such as Karnataka have asked the Centre to align these rules.
• Delays: waiting for all indicators and field checks can delay relief by months, when farmers need cash quickly to prepare for the next season.
• Reactive, not preventive: most money goes to relief after damage, not to building resilience before it. Experts suggest more spending on watershed development, micro-irrigation, drought-tolerant seeds, crop diversification away from water-hungry crops, and better crop insurance.
• The way forward: the Supreme Court in Swaraj Abhiyan stressed preparedness and mitigation. Experts also suggest more use of real-time satellite data and early-warning systems so that states can act sooner.

Concepts to Know

• Long-period average (LPA): the average rainfall of a long base period, used as "normal". For the southwest monsoon, the LPA for the whole country (based on 1971 to 2020) is about 87 cm.
• Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI): a number that shows how unusual the rainfall of a place is compared to its own long-term record. Strongly negative values mean unusually dry conditions.
• NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index): a satellite measure of how green and healthy plants are. Low values mean stressed or dry vegetation. NDWI does a similar job for water content in plants.
• Ground truthing: checking on the ground whether what data or satellites show is actually true.
• Input subsidy: money given to farmers who lost crops so they can buy seeds, fertiliser and other inputs for the next crop.
• Memorandum: a formal written request from a state to the Centre, listing the damage and the money needed.