India-China Trade Imbalance
India runs a large and growing structural trade deficit with China, driven by heavy import dependence on Chinese industrial, electronic, and pharmaceutical-ingredient goods against a narrower Indian export basket.
- India's trade deficit with China for 2025 has been estimated in the range of roughly US $99-116 billion, against total bilateral trade of over US $130-155 billion [estimates vary by source and methodology; treat as approximate]
- China's exports to India are concentrated in electronics, telecom equipment, machinery, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs); India's exports to China remain concentrated in raw materials such as iron ore, cotton, and organic chemicals
- India has relied on trade-remedy tools — anti-dumping duties, Quality Control Orders, and Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes — to address import dependence, rather than a negotiated bilateral trade agreement
- No India-China bilateral free trade agreement exists; trade between the two is governed by their shared WTO Most Favoured Nation commitments
● Tracked since March 11, 2026 · last seen August 25, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
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