Global Stocktake (Article 14, Paris Agreement)

The Global Stocktake (GST) is a five-yearly check-up of the whole world's progress on climate change under the Paris Agreement. It looks at the total effort of all countries together, not at any one country. It asks one big question: are we, as a planet, on track to meet the Paris goals? Its answer is meant to push every country to set stronger targets in its next round of climate plans.

Why does it exist?

Under the Paris Agreement, each country chooses its own targets, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This "bottom-up" approach got almost every country on board. But it has a weakness: if everyone sets easy targets, the total may fall far short. The stocktake fixes this gap. Think of a school where each student sets their own study goal. Every few years, the teacher checks the whole class's marks against the pass mark and tells everyone how far they are behind. That check is the stocktake.

Where did it come from?

It is written into Article 14 of the Paris Agreement (2015). A trial run, the 2018 Facilitative Dialogue, was held under Fiji's presidency and was called the Talanoa Dialogue ("talanoa" is a Pacific word for open, inclusive storytelling). The detailed rules for the stocktake were adopted at COP24 in Katowice, Poland, in 2018, as part of the Paris "rulebook". The first Global Stocktake began in 2021 and ended at COP28 in Dubai in December 2023.

How does it work?

The stocktake runs in three stages, over about two years:

1. Information collection and preparation: gathering data from national reports, IPCC science, UN bodies and other sources.
2. Technical assessment: experts and countries discuss the data in "technical dialogues" and write synthesis reports on where the world stands.
3. Consideration of outputs: at the COP in the stocktake year, countries agree on a political decision that sums up the findings and says what must happen next.

The stocktake looks at three themes: mitigation (cutting emissions), adaptation (coping with climate impacts) and means of implementation and support (money, technology and training for developing countries). It also considers equity and the best available science.

The link with NDCs (the "ratchet")

Article 14 says the outcome of the stocktake must inform countries when they update their NDCs. Article 4 of the Paris Agreement asks countries to send new NDCs every five years, and each new one should be stronger than the last. So the cycle goes: stocktake shows the gap, countries raise their targets, next stocktake checks again. This repeating cycle is often called the ratchet mechanism, because, like a ratchet tool, it is meant to move only one way: up.

What did the first stocktake (COP28, 2023) say?

Its decision is often called the "UAE Consensus". Its official number is Decision 1/CMA.5. Key points:

• The world is not on track to meet the Paris goals.
• To keep warming to 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall about 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, compared with 2019 levels, and reach net zero carbon dioxide by 2050.
• Paragraph 28 asked countries to contribute to eight global efforts, "in a nationally determined manner". These include:
• tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the yearly rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030;
• speeding up the phase-down of unabated coal power;
• "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner", speeding up action in this decade, to reach net zero by 2050;
• phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies as soon as possible.
• The next paragraph accepted that "transitional fuels" (widely understood to mean natural gas) can help energy transition and energy security.
• Forests (paragraphs 33 and 34): the decision stressed protecting and restoring nature, including stronger efforts to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. Forest degradation means a forest still stands but becomes thinner and poorer, for example through heavy logging. Paragraph 34 added that developing countries need more money, technology and training to do this. Like paragraph 28, this goal binds no single country.

This was the first time a COP decision named fossil fuels as a whole (oil, gas and coal) as something the world must move away from. Earlier, at COP26 (Glasgow, 2021), the text had named only coal, and on India's intervention the words were changed from "phase-out" to "phase-down" of unabated coal power.

How far is the world on the tripling goal?

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) tracks the paragraph 28 energy goals every year. It says tripling means about 11.2 terawatts (TW), or 11,200 gigawatts (GW), of renewable capacity worldwide by 2030. (A gigawatt is a measure of how much power plants can produce at full output; 1 TW is 1,000 GW.) In its September 2026 report, IRENA found that the world added a record of about 692 GW in 2025, reaching about 5,150 GW in total.

That is still too slow. The world must now add about 1,200 GW every year from 2026 to 2030 to reach the goal. On energy efficiency, the yearly improvement in 2025 was about 2%, half of the 4% needed.

What happened next?

The new round of NDCs, running up to 2035, was due in 2025. At COP30 (Belém, 2025), countries could not agree to repeat or build on the fossil fuel language, and the final "Global Mutirão" decision left it out. Brazil's presidency then promised voluntary roadmaps outside the formal process. Colombia and the Netherlands hosted the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, from 24 to 29 April 2026, with 57 countries taking part.

On 3 November 2026, Brazil's COP30 presidency published its Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels. It builds on the fossil fuel line in paragraph 28(d) of the first stocktake decision. Key points:

• The roadmap is voluntary: countries did not negotiate it, and it creates no new targets or duties.
• It encourages each country to write a national transition plan by 2028, in time for the second stocktake. This is a country's own plan for moving its energy system and economy away from coal, oil and gas.
• The main push to cut fossil fuel production comes later, in 2031 to 2033.

A second conference on the same theme, co-hosted by Tuvalu and Ireland, is planned in Tuvalu in 2027.

Brazil's presidency also worked through 2026 on a second voluntary paper, the Roadmap to Halt and Reverse Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2030. It follows up the forest goal in paragraph 33 of the first stocktake decision. Like the fossil fuel roadmap, it is not a negotiated text and binds no country.

The second Global Stocktake (GST2) starts at CMA8 in November 2026 and ends at CMA10 in November 2028, which meets alongside COP33. (CMA is the yearly meeting of the countries that have joined the Paris Agreement. It is held together with the COP.) It covers the years 2024 to 2028. Its technical assessment stage is set to begin in June 2027.

The link with IPCC science

The stocktake leans heavily on the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN's panel of climate scientists. The first stocktake used the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The COP28 decision invited the IPCC to think about how to line up its reports with the second and later stocktakes. As of October 2026, IPCC member countries had still not agreed whether the next set of reports, the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), will come out in time for GST2 in 2028. If they come later, GST2 may have to rely on the older AR6 science.

India's position and Indian examples

India supports the stocktake but insists that it must look at equity and at historical emissions, not only at today's emissions. India argues that developed countries used up most of the world's "carbon budget" and must cut faster and pay more. India accepted the COP28 decision. But India did not sign the separate COP28 renewables and efficiency pledge, because that pledge's wording on coal went beyond what India would accept.

Still, the tripling idea had India's support earlier: in September 2023, the G20 New Delhi Leaders' Declaration, under India's G20 presidency, backed efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030. India's own targets:

• Updated NDC (2022): cut the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels; about 50% of power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030; net zero by 2070.
• India crossed 50% non-fossil installed power capacity in 2025, five years early.
• NDC for 2031-2035 (approved by the Union Cabinet in March 2026; sent to the UNFCCC in April 2026): cut emissions intensity of GDP by 47% by 2035 from 2005 levels, and reach 60% non-fossil power capacity by 2035.

Commonly confused concepts

• Global Stocktake vs NDC: An NDC is one country's own plan. The stocktake is a collective review of all countries together, with no country-wise targets.
• Global Stocktake vs Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF): The ETF (Article 13) makes each country report its own emissions and progress in regular reports. The stocktake (Article 14) uses such reports to judge the world's total progress.
• Phase-out vs phase-down: "Phase-out" means ending something completely. "Phase-down" means reducing it step by step, with no fixed end point.
• "Transition away" vs "phase out": "Transition away from fossil fuels" means shifting the energy system towards other sources over time. It is softer than a phase-out and sets no end date for fossil fuels.
• Unabated vs abated coal: "Unabated" coal power is burned without capturing its carbon dioxide. "Abated" means the emissions are captured and stored, for example through carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• Global Stocktake vs Talanoa Dialogue: Talanoa (2018) was a one-time trial run. The stocktake is a legal, repeating process every five years.

Issues, criticism and the way forward

• No force behind it. The stocktake is "non-punitive". It does not name or punish any country. Critics say this makes it easy to ignore.
• Soft language. Words like "transitioning away", "phase-down" and "transitional fuels" leave room for delay. Supporters say such wording was the price of getting consensus from nearly 200 countries.
• Follow-up is fragile. COP30 failed to repeat the COP28 fossil fuel language, which shows that gains in one stocktake decision can stall later. Brazil's 2026 roadmap is voluntary and names no country, so nobody has to follow it.
• Equity and finance. Developing countries say they cannot move away from fossil fuels without money and technology from developed countries. Many say finance is the real test of the stocktake.
• Way forward: Experts suggest national transition roadmaps with dates, stronger links between stocktake findings and NDCs, and more climate finance for poorer nations. The second stocktake (2026 to 2028) will judge whether the 2035 NDCs are enough.

Concepts to Know

• Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC): A country's own climate plan under the Paris Agreement, saying how much it will cut emissions and how it will adapt. It is updated every five years.
• Emissions intensity of GDP: How much greenhouse gas a country releases for every unit of economic output. A falling intensity means the economy is growing more cleanly, even if total emissions still rise.
• Net zero: When the greenhouse gases a country releases are balanced by the gases it removes (for example, through forests or technology), so the total added to the air is zero.
• Carbon budget: The total amount of carbon dioxide the world can still release while keeping warming under a set limit, such as 1.5°C.
• Just transition: Moving away from fossil fuels in a way that protects workers and communities whose jobs and incomes depend on coal, oil or gas.
• Fossil fuel subsidy: Government money or tax breaks that make coal, oil or gas cheaper than their real cost.
• IPCC Assessment Report: A huge review of all climate science, written by the IPCC every six to seven years. It comes in parts, made by three Working Groups: the science of warming, its impacts, and ways to cut emissions.
• Renewable energy capacity: The total power that all solar, wind, hydro and other clean power plants can produce at full output. It is measured in gigawatts (GW) or terawatts (TW).