El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Mechanism
ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, easterly trade winds push warm surface water westward, raising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Pacific and Indonesia. El Niño events occur when these trade winds weaken or reverse — warm water surges eastward toward the central and eastern Pacific, disrupting the normal Walker Circulation (the east-west atmospheric overturning cell above the Pacific, named after Gilbert Walker who discovered the Southern Oscillation in the early 20th century).
- El Niño: warmer-than-normal SSTs in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific; weakened Walker Circulation.
- La Niña: opposite — cooler-than-normal SSTs in eastern Pacific; stronger Walker Circulation; generally favourable for Indian monsoon.
- ENSO events typically last 9–12 months; classified by intensity (moderate, strong, very strong).
- The 1997-98 El Niño was the strongest of the 20th century — yet India received above-average rainfall that year, demonstrating El Niño's non-deterministic relationship with the Indian monsoon.
- The 2002 drought coincided with a weak-to-moderate El Niño, illustrating that monsoon failures can occur even without a strong El Niño.
● Tracked since April 16, 2026 · last seen June 15, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
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