Around 41% of sowing area under drought by June end; Kharif sowing sees sharp drop
As of June 25, 2026, kharif sowing area stood at 18.27 million hectares (mha) — a 23% decline from 23.65 mha recorded in the same period in 2025, representing a shortfall of 5.37 mha.
Oilseeds have been the worst-hit crop, with sowing plummeting 53% year-on-year (from 3.64 mha to 1.70 mha); pulses and rice also recorded significant declines.
India's June 2026 rainfall deficit reached approximately 40–45%, making it one of the driest June periods in over a century of recorded observations.
The National Drought Monitor (maintained by IIT Gandhinagar) flagged 41.2% of India's total area under drought or near-drought conditions as of July 1 — with western India at 71% and northeast India at 62%.
111 districts across 12 states — including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan — were classified as high-priority drought risk, largely comprising areas with irrigation coverage below 25%.
Meteorologists expect monsoon activity to strengthen in early July as low-pressure systems develop over the Bay of Bengal.
Kharif Cropping Season in India
India has three major agricultural seasons — Kharif, Rabi, and Zaid — corresponding to its varied climatic zones and monsoon rhythm.
Key Details
- Kharif season: sown with the onset of the southwest monsoon (June), harvested by October–November.
- Key kharif crops: paddy (rice), maize, bajra (pearl millet), jowar (sorghum), cotton, groundnut, soybean, moong, urad, arhar (tur), and sugarcane.
- Rabi season: sown after the monsoon retreats (October–November), harvested by March–April; includes wheat, mustard, gram, barley, and linseed.
- Zaid season: short summer season (March–June) for crops like watermelon, cucumber, and fodder.
- Approximately 60% of India's kharif area is rainfed (no irrigation fallback), making it entirely dependent on monsoon performance.
- Pulses and oilseeds — critical for protein and edible oil security — have nearly 90% of their sown area under rainfed cultivation.
The June 2026 rainfall failure directly suppressed kharif sowing, with the 23% area decline threatening both food production and rural incomes before the season has even properly begun.
India's Southwest Monsoon System and Variability
The southwest monsoon (June–September) accounts for 75–80% of India's total annual precipitation. Its behaviour is shaped by differential thermal gradients between the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, modulated by large-scale climate systems including ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Key Details
- The Long Period Average (LPA) for the southwest monsoon (1971–2020 baseline) is approximately 87 cm over India as a whole.
- "Deficient" monsoon: seasonal rainfall 10% or more below LPA; "Large deficient": 20% or more below LPA.
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) — under the Ministry of Earth Sciences — issues long-range forecasts in April, updated in May, with monthly outlooks thereafter.
- El Niño conditions (warming of the eastern Pacific) historically correlate with about 60% of India's below-normal monsoon years.
- The monsoon is constitutionally a concurrent-list subject in terms of disaster response, but weather forecasting is a Union function under the IMD.
- Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Karnataka together account for a disproportionately large share of rainfed agriculture and are most vulnerable to monsoon variability.
A 40–45% June deficit classifies this season well within "deficient" territory, triggering the cascade from delayed sowing to reduced yield projections to drought declaration mechanisms.
Drought Classification and Monitoring in India
India's drought management framework distinguishes between meteorological drought, agricultural drought, and hydrological drought — each with different triggers, indicators, and response mechanisms.
Key Details
- Meteorological drought: rainfall deficiency over a defined area and time (IMD's criteria: ≥26% deficit in a week/month/season).
- Agricultural drought: when soil moisture is insufficient to meet crop water demand — measured by indices like Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and soil moisture anomalies.
- Hydrological drought: depletion of surface water (reservoirs, rivers) and groundwater below normal levels.
- The National Drought Monitor is maintained by IIT Gandhinagar using the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), integrating rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration data.
- Drought declaration in India is a state government responsibility; the 2016 Manual for Drought Management (Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare) provides the standardised national framework.
- States must formally declare drought to unlock central funds through the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) and the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) claims mechanism.
- The NDMA Guidelines on Drought Management (under the Disaster Management Act, 2005) provide the institutional template, with the three-tier structure: NDMA → SDMA → DDMA.
With 41.2% of India's area under drought conditions and 111 districts flagged as high-priority, multiple states are likely to invoke the formal drought declaration process to access central relief — a process that follows the 2016 Manual's prescribed protocols.
Food Security Architecture and Price Volatility Risks
Kharif crop failures ripple through India's food security system — affecting procurement by state agencies, buffer stock positions, retail prices, and the government's fiscal exposure to food subsidies.
Key Details
- The National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013 entitles approximately 81.35 crore persons (67% of the population) to subsidised foodgrain.
- The minimum support price (MSP) regime — announced by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs on the recommendation of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) — provides a price floor for 23 kharif and rabi crops.
- Paddy (common grade) MSP for 2025–26 kharif season: ₹2,300 per quintal.
- The Food Corporation of India (FCI) manages central pool buffer stocks; the Government of India periodically releases buffer stocks into the market to contain retail price spikes.
- Pulses and edible oils are particularly import-sensitive: India imports roughly 60–70% of its edible oil requirement (primarily palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia); a domestic production shortfall worsens the import bill.
A 53% drop in oilseeds sowing and a ~25% decline in paddy sowing — if carried through to harvest — would tighten domestic supply, test the buffer stock mechanism, and potentially require import policy interventions to contain food inflation.
- Kharif sown area (June 25, 2026): 18.27 mha — down 23% from 23.65 mha (2025).
- Oilseeds: 1.70 mha in 2026 vs 3.64 mha in 2025 — a 53% decline.
- Pulses: 1.49 mha vs 2.15 mha — a 31% decline.
- Rice (paddy): 2.58 mha vs 3.44 mha — a ~25% decline.
- Cotton: 29.66 lakh ha vs 45.36 lakh ha — a ~35% decline.
- June 2026 monsoon deficit: approximately 40–45% (IMD); one of the driest June periods in over 100 years.
- Area under drought or near-drought (July 1, 2026): 41.2% of India's total area (National Drought Monitor, IIT Gandhinagar).
- Western India: 71% under drought; Central India: 53%; Northeast: 62%; North: 46%.
- High-priority districts: 111 across 12 states; irrigation coverage in these areas: below 25%.
- Agriculture's share of India's GDP: approximately 15%; share of workforce employed: approximately 45%.
- Rainfed kharif area: approximately 60% of total kharif sowing; pulses and oilseeds rainfed share: ~90%.
- NFSA, 2013 coverage: approximately 81.35 crore beneficiaries.
- India imports approximately 60–70% of its edible oil requirement.