India's Vulnerability
Carbon-Intensive Manufacturing Base
India's industrial production remains heavily dependent on coal-based electricity and conventional blast furnace steelmaking — both carbon-intensive processes that generate higher embedded emissions per tonne of output compared to EU counterparts using renewables or hydrogen-based processes.
- India's electricity mix (2024-25): ~68% coal-based generation (thermal power); renewable share growing but still minority
- Indian steelmaking: ~45% Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) + 55% Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF)/Blast Furnace; BF-BOF is ~2× more carbon-intensive than EAF using scrap
- CBAM impact on Indian steel: India exports ~2–3 million tonnes of steel to EU annually; CBAM carbon costs could add €50–100 per tonne, reducing price competitiveness
- Aluminium: India produces ~4 million tonnes/year; secondary (recycled) aluminium accounts for ~30–40% of output — lower carbon intensity, but primary aluminium from coal-powered smelters is highly carbon-intensive
- Engineering goods: India's engineering exports to EU ~$40 billion (all destinations); EU-specific engineering exports ~€8–10 billion; Phase 2 CBAM coverage brings new compliance burden
- GTRI assessment: By 2030, most industrial products entering the EU could face some form of carbon tax exposure
● Tracked since March 27, 2026 · last seen April 16, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
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