El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Monsoon
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño refers to the warming phase, while La Niña refers to the cooling phase. ENSO significantly influences global weather patterns, including the Indian South West Monsoon.
- During El Niño years, the Walker Circulation weakens — rising air over the warm Pacific creates subsidence over the Indian Ocean, suppressing monsoon rainfall over South Asia
- The 2023 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, causing below-average monsoon rainfall that year; historical data shows about 60–65% of below-normal monsoon years coincide with El Niño events
- La Niña years, by contrast, tend to favour above-normal Indian monsoon rainfall
- However, other factors — particularly the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and northern hemisphere snow cover — can partially offset El Niño's negative impact: below-normal NH snow cover during January–March 2026 is a mild positive factor for the monsoon
● Tracked since April 13, 2026 · last seen May 29, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
See it in today’s brief.
Daily current affairs with every static concept explained in place.
Read the daily brief