El Niño and the Indian Monsoon
India's Southwest Monsoon (June–September) is strongly modulated by ENSO. El Niño years are associated with suppressed monsoon rainfall — weakened pressure gradients reduce moisture transport from the Arabian Sea. La Niña years, conversely, tend to enhance monsoon activity, leading to above-normal rainfall. Approximately 60% of India's agriculture is monsoon-dependent, and ENSO-linked monsoon variability directly affects food security, reservoir storage, hydropower generation, and drought/flood risk. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) acts as a modulating factor — a positive IOD can partially offset El Niño's negative impact on Indian rainfall.
- El Niño effect on Indian monsoon: typically suppresses rainfall (historically, 8 of 14 major droughts in India linked to El Niño)
- La Niña effect: generally enhances monsoon (above-normal rainfall risk)
- Modulating factor: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — positive IOD can offset El Niño impact
- India Meteorological Department (IMD): uses ENSO state as primary input for Long Range Forecast (LRF) of monsoon
- RONI implication: winters previously counted as ENSO-neutral may now be reclassified — affecting retrospective monsoon analysis
● Tracked since February 25, 2026 · last seen June 13, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes
13 Jun '26
El Niño emerges in Pacific Ocean, to intensify during SW monsoon season: IMD
Environment & Ecology
07 Jun '26
India’s growth faces crude and monsoon test as FY27 GDP seen moderating to 6.5%
Economics
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