AI and the Future of Work
IMF's Analytical Framework
The IMF's analysis of AI's labour market impact rests on two key dimensions: exposure (how much of a job's tasks can be performed by AI) and complementarity (whether AI enhances or replaces the worker). High-exposure, high-complementarity roles (e.g., advanced data analysis, creative professionals with AI tools) see wage increases and productivity gains. High-exposure, low-complementarity roles (e.g., data entry clerks, customer service representatives, basic legal research) face displacement risk. The IMF's January 2024 staff paper estimated that AI affects ~40% of global jobs — this estimate was updated at Davos 2026, with Georgieva emphasising 60% exposure in advanced economies. The key policy insight: the distribution of AI's benefits depends almost entirely on government choices about education, social protection, and access.
- 60% of jobs in advanced economies exposed to AI impact (IMF, 2026).
- 40% of jobs in emerging market economies exposed; 26% in low-income countries.
- High-risk categories: routine cognitive work, entry-level administrative roles, basic customer service.
- Lower-risk categories: jobs requiring interpersonal skills, physical dexterity in unstructured environments, high creativity.
- IMF finding: ~1 in 10 jobs in advanced economies already enhanced by AI — often with higher pay.
- Key concern: AI compresses the entry-level job market, making youth transitions into the workforce harder.
● Tracked since February 16, 2026 · last seen February 20, 2026 · updates as the daily brief publishes