Kharif 2026 sowing gets off to a slow start as El Niño casts shadow over monsoon

Kharif crop sowing for 2026-27 has commenced at a slower-than-normal pace, with total area sown at 7.25 million hectares by June 5, 2026 — approximately 200,...

What Happened

Kharif crop sowing for 2026-27 has commenced at a slower-than-normal pace, with total area sown at 7.25 million hectares by June 5, 2026 — approximately 200,000 hectares below the corresponding period in 2025.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially confirmed on June 12, 2026 that El Niño conditions have developed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and downgraded its seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — signaling a below-normal monsoon.
Climate models indicate El Niño will strengthen during July-September, precisely when the southwest monsoon delivers the bulk of India's annual rainfall, with the most significant deficits expected in August-September.
The core rainfed agricultural zones — Northwest India, West India, and Central India — face the highest rainfall deficit risk; the northeastern region is expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
Approximately 197-200 districts have been identified by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare as most vulnerable to El Niño-induced agricultural stress, with state-specific contingency protocols activated.
Key crops at risk include rice (historical El Niño impact: ~3.4 million tonne reduction in production), pulses (soybean, groundnut in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan), and coarse cereals (maize, bajra face compressed sowing windows).
The government has precautionarily stockpiled drought-resistant seed varieties, pre-positioned fertilizers and agricultural inputs, and initiated weekly monitoring reviews of sowing progress.
Early rainfall in June 2026 was running approximately 10% below the long-period average, contributing to the slow sowing start.

Static Topic Bridges

El Niño — Mechanism and India's Monsoon Linkage

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically occurring every 2-7 years. It is one half of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle (La Niña is the cooling phase).

Physical mechanism: Warmer Pacific SSTs alter global atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the Walker Circulation and Hadley Circulation. For India, this typically results in weakened moisture-bearing winds from the Indian Ocean into the subcontinent.
India's monsoon linkage: India's southwest monsoon (June-September) is negatively correlated with El Niño. Historical data shows El Niño disrupted Indian rainfall in 9 out of 16 El Niño events since 1950.
Not deterministic: Not every El Niño year produces a drought in India. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can partially offset El Niño's influence — a positive IOD, for example, can compensate for El Niño's moisture-suppressing effect.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean; a positive IOD (warm west, cool east) tends to bring above-normal rainfall to India.
IMD tools: IMD uses Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and statistical models (PCA-based) for seasonal monsoon prediction.
Long Period Average (LPA): IMD uses the 1971-2020 LPA of 87 cm of all-India summer monsoon rainfall as the reference. Below-normal monsoon is defined as rainfall below 96% of LPA; large deficit below 90% of LPA.

Connection to this news: IMD's 90% of LPA forecast — combined with confirmed El Niño development in June 2026 — creates a high-risk environment for kharif agriculture, particularly in the July-September peak monsoon period.

Kharif Cropping Season — Key Features

Kharif crops are summer crops sown at the beginning of the southwest monsoon (June-July) and harvested after the monsoon ends (September-October).

Sowing season: June-July (onset of southwest monsoon).
Harvest season: September-October.
Key kharif crops: Paddy (rice), maize, bajra (pearl millet), jowar (sorghum), groundnut, soybean, tur/arhar (pigeon pea), urad (black gram), moong (green gram), cotton, sugarcane, jute.
Paddy's importance: Rice is the most widely grown kharif crop, covering approximately 40-42 million hectares in a normal year. India is the world's second-largest producer and largest exporter of rice. A 1-percentage-point shortfall in monsoon rainfall is estimated to reduce rice production by ~2.5 million tonnes.
Rainfed agriculture share: Approximately 60% of India's net sown area is rainfed (not irrigated), making kharif output directly dependent on monsoon performance.
Food security implication: Kharif production — especially paddy, pulses, and oilseeds — directly impacts domestic food availability, buffer stock levels (FCI), and retail food inflation (CPI food sub-index).

Connection to this news: A below-normal monsoon during the critical July-September strengthening of El Niño directly threatens paddy, pulse, and oilseed production — the crops most dependent on consistent rainfall and most significant for food security.

Government Mechanisms for Agricultural Contingency Planning

The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare and state governments operate formal systems to manage agricultural risk from weather shocks, including crop failure due to drought.

Contingency Crop Planning: District-level contingency plans (maintained by State Agricultural Universities in coordination with ICAR) prescribe alternative crops, varieties, and management practices for use when normal sowing is disrupted by delayed or deficient rainfall.
ICAR's National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA): Develops drought-tolerant, short-duration varieties and site-specific contingency plans for vulnerable districts.
National Food Security Act, 2013: Mandates supply of subsidized foodgrains to 67% of the population (50% urban, 75% rural). Buffer stocks are held by Food Corporation of India (FCI); the government must release from buffer stocks to stabilize food supply during production shortfalls.
Buffer stock norms: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs sets quarterly buffer stock norms for wheat and rice; the government triggers Open Market Sales Scheme (OMSS) when retail prices rise.
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): Crop insurance scheme (launched 2016) covering yield losses due to natural calamities, pests, and diseases. Premium for farmers is low (2% for kharif, 1.5% for rabi food crops, 5% for horticulture); actuarial premiums are shared by Centre and states.
National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) and State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF): Primary mechanisms for financial relief to farmers in drought-affected areas; drought relief norms are prescribed under the revised guidelines (2015, revised 2022).

Connection to this news: The identification of 197-200 vulnerable districts and activation of state-specific contingency plans reflects the formal activation of India's pre-drought preparedness architecture in response to the El Niño warning.

Food Inflation Transmission — Monsoon to CPI

A deficient monsoon can transmit into retail food inflation through multiple channels, affecting CPI and potentially triggering monetary policy responses.

CPI Food and Beverages weight: 45.86% of the CPI basket — the largest single component, making food inflation the dominant driver of headline CPI.
Transmission lag: Monsoon deficit in July-September → harvest shortfall in October → retail price increase in November-December → CPI food spike peaks in January-February of the following year.
Key price-sensitive crops: Vegetables (especially onion, tomato, potato — high weight, high volatility), pulses, cereals, and edible oils.
RBI's response: The MPC must "look through" temporary supply-side food inflation shocks vs. respond if second-round effects (core inflation) appear. The MPC has historically tolerated short-duration food price spikes without rate increases.
ICRA projection: A major El Niño-driven agricultural disruption in 2026 could add approximately 0.4 percentage points to CPI food inflation.

Connection to this news: If the below-normal monsoon forecast materializes, the food inflation transmission path described above becomes a key macroeconomic risk for India in the second half of 2026, with implications for RBI's rate path and the government's fiscal response.

Key Facts & Data

Kharif 2026 area sown (as of June 5, 2026): 7.25 million hectares — ~200,000 ha below corresponding period in 2025.
IMD confirmation of El Niño: June 12, 2026.
IMD seasonal rainfall forecast: 90% of Long Period Average (LPA) — below-normal monsoon.
LPA definition: 87 cm of all-India summer monsoon rainfall (1971-2020 base).
Below-normal monsoon definition: Rainfall below 96% of LPA.
El Niño strengthening period: July-September 2026 (peak monsoon season).
Regions at highest risk: Northwest, West, Central India; Northeast expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
Vulnerable districts flagged: 197-200 districts.
Rice production impact per strong El Niño: ~3.4 million tonne reduction (historical average).
Rainfed agriculture share: ~60% of India's net sown area.
El Niño disrupted Indian monsoon: 9 of 16 events since 1950.
Early June 2026 rainfall: ~10% below long-period average.
Key crops at risk: Paddy, soybean, groundnut, tur (pigeon pea), maize, bajra.
Government response: 197 vulnerable districts identified; contingency seed stocks pre-positioned; weekly monitoring reviews initiated.
PMFBY coverage: Kharif crops at 2% farmer premium (actuarial premium subsidized by Centre and states).
CPI Food and Beverages weight: 45.86%.