Strong El Niño may bring more extreme weather across the world, warns WMO

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a formal warning that a strong El Niño event is developing in the equatorial Pacific, with an 80% prob...

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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a formal warning that a strong El Niño event is developing in the equatorial Pacific, with an 80% probability of El Niño conditions prevailing during June–August 2026 and probabilities near or above 90% that conditions will persist through at least November 2026.
WMO forecasts project sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding 2°C above normal in key monitoring regions, which — if sustained — would classify the event as at least "strong" by international meteorological convention.
The organisation warns of a "volatile weather season" globally, with a near-universal dominance of above-normal temperatures expected across most parts of the world for the June–August season.
Regions at heightened risk of drought include parts of South and Southeast Asia, southern Africa, and northeast South America; regions at heightened risk of excess rainfall and flooding include the eastern equatorial Pacific coastal nations (Peru, Ecuador), the southern United States, and parts of East Africa.
WMO notes that the current developing El Niño follows the extremely strong 2023-24 El Niño — one of the five strongest on record — which contributed to record-breaking global average temperatures in 2024.

Static Topic Bridges

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) — Role and Mandate

The World Meteorological Organization is a specialised agency of the United Nations, established in 1950, with 193 member states and territories. Its mandate is to facilitate international cooperation in meteorology, hydrology, and related geophysical sciences, and to ensure the free exchange of meteorological data.

Headquarters: Geneva, Switzerland.
WMO coordinates the Global Weather Watch — a worldwide network of national meteorological services providing standardised observations.
WMO issues El Niño/La Niña Updates (typically every two months) as the authoritative international benchmark for ENSO status.
WMO also coordinates the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and works closely with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — which WMO co-founded along with UNEP in 1988.
WMO's annual State of the Global Climate report is the primary global temperature-record reference cited in international climate negotiations.

Connection to this news: WMO's El Niño warnings carry formal international weight — they trigger pre-emptive humanitarian and agricultural planning across member states, including India's IMD issuing contingency monsoon forecasts.

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) — Classification and Intensity Thresholds

El Niño events are classified by intensity based on sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 monitoring region (5°N–5°S, 120°W–170°W) averaged over overlapping three-month periods:

Weak El Niño: SST anomaly of 0.5°C to 0.9°C above normal.
Moderate El Niño: SST anomaly of 1.0°C to 1.4°C above normal.
Strong El Niño: SST anomaly of 1.5°C to 1.9°C above normal.
Very Strong / Super El Niño: SST anomaly ≥2.0°C above normal.
The 1997-98 El Niño (peak anomaly ~2.8°C) and 2015-16 El Niño (peak ~2.3°C) are the two strongest events in the instrumental record.
The 2023-24 El Niño was one of the five strongest on record and contributed significantly to 2024 being the warmest year globally.
The current 2026 event, with WMO forecasting SST anomalies to exceed 2°C, would place it in the "very strong/super" category if sustained.
An El Niño event is officially declared when the 5-month running mean of SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region exceeds +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping seasons.

Connection to this news: WMO's projection of a 2026 El Niño with SST anomalies exceeding 2°C places it in the potentially "super El Niño" category, making its global weather impacts — including India's monsoon deficit — more severe than an average El Niño year.

Global Teleconnections of El Niño — Regional Impact Patterns

"Teleconnections" refers to statistically significant correlations between climate anomalies at geographically distant locations. El Niño produces well-established teleconnection patterns across the globe through changes in the Hadley Circulation (the tropical vertical circulation that ascends near the equator and descends in the subtropics) and the Walker Circulation (equatorial east-west circulation).

South Asia (India): Weakened monsoon → rainfall deficit; risk of drought in Kharif season. Historical correlation: droughts in 1972, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009 all coincided with El Niño.
Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Australia): Severe drought and wildfires; reduced agricultural output.
Eastern Pacific coast (Peru, Ecuador): Anomalous heavy rainfall and floods due to warm SSTs along the coastline.
East Africa: Above-normal rainfall and flooding (as observed in 2023-24 El Niño).
Southern Africa: Below-normal rainfall, drought risk for maize and other staple crops.
North America: Wetter and warmer winters in the southern US; cooler and wetter conditions in parts of the Pacific coast.
Global temperature: El Niño events systematically raise global mean temperature in the year of peak development and the year following, because warm Pacific SSTs increase ocean heat release to the atmosphere.

Connection to this news: WMO's warning of "extreme weather across the world" is precisely a reference to these teleconnection patterns activating simultaneously — a strong El Niño does not just affect one region but reorganises global rainfall and temperature distributions.

Climate Change and El Niño Interaction — The Compounding Effect

Climate scientists note that El Niño events now occur against a background of anthropogenic warming, which means each El Niño superimposes its warming on a baseline that is already elevated above pre-industrial levels. This compounding effect means extreme weather events associated with El Niño are more intense in a warming world.

The Paris Agreement (2015) targets limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (Article 2.1a). Global average temperature in 2024 — boosted by the 2023-24 El Niño — briefly exceeded the 1.5°C mark for the full year, a symbolic first.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021-22) notes that climate change is expected to modify ENSO patterns, though the direction of change (more frequent, more intense, or shifted seasonally) remains an area of active research.
Compound extreme events — where El Niño-driven drought coincides with a heat wave amplified by climate change — are of particular concern for food security, water resources, and wildfire risk.
Heat stress on crops during a monsoon deficit year is more severe when the background temperature is higher, compressing safe growing degree-day windows.

Connection to this news: WMO's warning explicitly draws the link between El Niño and compounding climate hazards — the organisation frames the 2026 event in the context of already elevated global temperatures, signalling that its agricultural and humanitarian impacts will be amplified compared to historical El Niño events of similar oceanic intensity.

Key Facts & Data

WMO headquarters: Geneva, Switzerland; founded: 1950; member states: 193.
WMO co-founded the IPCC with UNEP in 1988.
WMO El Niño probability for Jun–Aug 2026: 80%; probability through Nov 2026: ≥90%.
Forecast SST anomaly in Niño 3.4 region: exceeding 2°C (very strong / super El Niño threshold).
El Niño intensity thresholds: Weak (0.5–0.9°C), Moderate (1.0–1.4°C), Strong (1.5–1.9°C), Very Strong/Super (≥2.0°C).
Strongest El Niño events on record: 1997-98 (~2.8°C peak) and 2015-16 (~2.3°C peak).
2023-24 El Niño: one of the five strongest on record; contributed to record global temperatures in 2024.
Global year 2024: warmest year on record (global mean temperature briefly exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial for the full calendar year).
Paris Agreement temperature target: 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (Article 2.1a).
IPCC AR6 released: 2021-22.
El Niño drought years in India since 1950: 1972, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009 (five extreme droughts among 16 El Niño events).
Regions at drought risk in 2026 El Niño: South and Southeast Asia, southern Africa, northeast South America.
Regions at flood risk: Eastern Pacific coast (Peru/Ecuador), East Africa, parts of southern United States.